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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:07 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:07 pm to lsumatt
Essentially, the most illogical thing will happen, Arkansas beats LSU 38ish to 24ish. LSU is shut out of the SECCG, but gets selected by the media and computers to be in the BCSCG. Fans will be ready to vomit after the Ark game, but then they will win the popularity contest and get in the title game.
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Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:08 pm to fish farmer
quote:
I then got on Tigerdroppings and waited until 3:30 in the morning for your post to get verification!!!
This was before I started posting, (I was a long time listener before my first call in) and I remember lsumatt being cautiously certain that we would make the game. It was destiny then and I believe it is destiny now.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:09 pm to lsumatt
So we beat Arky and we all have to pull for Auburn, which all of us do every year in that game anyway.
This really makes you realize how screwed up the BCS is. I mean, they only got it right two years (2003 and 2007 in it's 12 year history.
This really makes you realize how screwed up the BCS is. I mean, they only got it right two years (2003 and 2007 in it's 12 year history.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:21 pm to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
Thanks for keeping us in the know
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:21 pm to SLTiger29
For those interested in the LSU losing to Arkansas scenario and who goes to the SEC CG:
As best I can figure, LSU would have a decided advantage over Arkansas in the computer polls, as much as .980 to .880. LSU drop only to .980 in the computer polls? Well keep in mind, we were tied with Okie State at .980 before Okie State lost, and they only dropped to .950 (we took 2 of their computer poll spots) and that was a loss to unranked Iowa State, not #4 computer poll ranked Arkansas. In fact, there is an outside shot that LSU would still hold a 1.00 computer poll result even with a loss to Arkansas. Think Oklahoma in 2003, they were so far ahead of everybody in the computer polls, that even after a loss to KState, they were still prohibitive #1 in the computer polls. That's why they made it to the BCS CG.
But let's say conservatively, LSU holds a .080 advantage in the computer polls (.980 to .900, .970 to .890, etc) over Arkansas. That is the equivalent of an entire spot in the human polls in BOTH the Harris and Coaches.
If you're a firm believer that no voter will place Arkansas ahead of Alabama (they lost by 24, afterall), then Arkansas would have to place 2nd on everybody's ballot and LSU 3rd on everybody's ballot just for Arkansas to create a tie in the BCS for 2nd overall.
That's not going to happen. In fact, there will be about 10-20 percent of the voters (maybe more) that keep LSU #1 on their ballot.
In other words, LSU has very little chance of dropping all the way to #3 in the BCS should they lose to Arkansas.
LSU is essentially in a "win one of the next 2 games" scenario to get to the BCS CG.
And deservedly so.
As best I can figure, LSU would have a decided advantage over Arkansas in the computer polls, as much as .980 to .880. LSU drop only to .980 in the computer polls? Well keep in mind, we were tied with Okie State at .980 before Okie State lost, and they only dropped to .950 (we took 2 of their computer poll spots) and that was a loss to unranked Iowa State, not #4 computer poll ranked Arkansas. In fact, there is an outside shot that LSU would still hold a 1.00 computer poll result even with a loss to Arkansas. Think Oklahoma in 2003, they were so far ahead of everybody in the computer polls, that even after a loss to KState, they were still prohibitive #1 in the computer polls. That's why they made it to the BCS CG.
But let's say conservatively, LSU holds a .080 advantage in the computer polls (.980 to .900, .970 to .890, etc) over Arkansas. That is the equivalent of an entire spot in the human polls in BOTH the Harris and Coaches.
If you're a firm believer that no voter will place Arkansas ahead of Alabama (they lost by 24, afterall), then Arkansas would have to place 2nd on everybody's ballot and LSU 3rd on everybody's ballot just for Arkansas to create a tie in the BCS for 2nd overall.
That's not going to happen. In fact, there will be about 10-20 percent of the voters (maybe more) that keep LSU #1 on their ballot.
In other words, LSU has very little chance of dropping all the way to #3 in the BCS should they lose to Arkansas.
LSU is essentially in a "win one of the next 2 games" scenario to get to the BCS CG.
And deservedly so.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:27 pm to SLTiger29
quote:
I mean, they only got it right two years (2003 and 2007 in it's 12 year history.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:27 pm to islstl
quote:
That is the equivalent of an entire spot in the human polls in BOTH the Harris and Coaches.
You are saying that LSU is up at least 2 spots on Arky in the computers, which I am no longer sure of. Ok State would be above LSU in all/most of the computers and Arky looks poised to topple Bama in 2-3 of the computers. So the average computer rating could look like:
1. Ok State
2. LSU
3.5 Bama
3.5 Arky
5. Va Tech
So LSU wouldn't quite be able to be a whole spot below Arky in the human polls. What are you suggesting the comps look like? That LSU is above Ok State in some polls? Maybe.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:31 pm to lsumatt
quote:
So LSU wouldn't quite be able to be a whole spot below Arky in the human polls. What are you suggesting the comps look like? That LSU is above Ok State in some polls? Maybe.
Take the comparison of the loss.
Okie State - Iowa State (out of the top 30)
LSU - Arkansas (#3 or #4 in most/all computer polls)
Also, LSU will nearly match Okie State for SOS in most computer polls with the Arkansas game (10-1).
If Okie State and LSU were tied (split the polls) before Okie State lost to Iowa State and LSU lost to Oklahoma, worst case is we return to a split. The likelihood is that LSU gets at least 1 more of those polls and maybe even both to go to .990 or 1.00. All other things remaining equal.
Obviously if a bunch of our opponents lose next week and all of Okie States win, then all bets are off.
I'm also not convinced Arky splits computer polls with Bama, as Bama will also be beating a decently ranked Auburn team. Depends on SOS, but I think Bama will still be ahead of Arkansas. Arkansas may be no better than .880, but likely be at .890 and .900 tops.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:31 pm to lsumatt
Do you expect OSU to jump Bama if OSU beats Oklahoma? I know you said it'll be close, but after seeing the BCS numbers come out tonight, what is your feeling on that?
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:37 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Do you expect OSU to jump Bama if OSU beats Oklahoma? I know you said it'll be close, but after seeing the BCS numbers come out tonight, what is your feeling on that?
Projected computer polls in this scenario: Oklahoma State .960, Alabama .920 (computers clearly calling for an LSU/Oklahoma State showdown. The .960 is a minimum, I think Okie State could be as high as .980 or even .990, splitting polls with LSU if LSU were to lose to either Arkansas or Georgia. My guess is .980 or .970.
Oklahoma State would have to cut the margin between a solid 2nd and solid 3rd human poll ranking by 1/2 of the way, essentially not having to overtake Alabama, but just get close (Within 29 pts for Coaches, 57 pts for Harris). Essentially a minimum of 1/4 of the voters would have to switch their vote from Alabama to Oklahoma State for 2nd place on their ballot.
If Okie State is .980, then even less than 1/4 of the voters need to switch. Now we're talking just a handful of voters. But that requires an LSU loss. So we probably don't want to go there.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:39 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:39 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
but after seeing the BCS numbers come out tonight, what is your feeling on that?
Its too close to tell. All I can say is that they would only need 25% of voters to put them over Bama b/c of their computer score (and the remaining 75% behind Bama but over Va Tech and Stanford).
That seems very doable for Ok State.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:39 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
We don't know. Let's hope okie st wins and auburn beats bama.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:42 pm to Weaver
What's sad is I think ultimately the voters will hear all the talking heads on ESPN and vote according to what they are saying. At least enough of them probably will.
If we don't hear a groundswell of support for Okie State the night of December 3rd, then it is probably not going to happen.
Talking heads controlling things. Kinda makes you sick to your stomach.
If we don't hear a groundswell of support for Okie State the night of December 3rd, then it is probably not going to happen.
Talking heads controlling things. Kinda makes you sick to your stomach.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:44 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:52 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Its too close to tell. All I can say is that they would only need 25% of voters to put them over Bama b/c of their computer score (and the remaining 75% behind Bama but over Va Tech and Stanford).
That seems very doable for Ok State.
One thing to remember is that the computer scores next week will be devoid of several games from the following week. OSU won't get their bump up IMO by not playing.
That is what is important to remember, and why LSU will likely remain ahead of them in several of the computers. This is more just looking into how it will affect the SECCG issue. The final poll is a different story.
Also, look to the prior weeks computer scores and LSU was ahead in 3 while OSU was ahead in 3 with both undefeated. Then look at the quality of the loss for LSU and OSU, and LSU is at least back to where that started. UF losing could hurt the score though, but I don't think it would be that drastic.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:00 pm to Geaux2002
As Matt indicated in the OP, the biggest game of the week for LSU to watch is for Clemson to beat South Carolina.
That will be the kicker in giving LSU a much more decided advantage over Arkansas in the computer polls.
Of course, Oregon needs to show up against Oregon State.
If Oregon had just beaten USC, we probably aren't even having any discussion about LSU and Arkansas in this scenario. LSU would have had their way paved into the SEC CG, win or lose.
That will be the kicker in giving LSU a much more decided advantage over Arkansas in the computer polls.
Of course, Oregon needs to show up against Oregon State.
If Oregon had just beaten USC, we probably aren't even having any discussion about LSU and Arkansas in this scenario. LSU would have had their way paved into the SEC CG, win or lose.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:42 pm to islstl
Matt
Scenario. With OSU having such a strong computer ranking. If LSU loses to Arky in surprising style (say by 14) and these are the new rankings:
1. Bama
2. Arky
3. LSU
4. OSU
Alabama would obviously go on to the SECCG.
How does LSU hold off being jumped by OSU? Bama and LSU both would have 1 loss. Both great teams. Basically the same situation.
Scenario. With OSU having such a strong computer ranking. If LSU loses to Arky in surprising style (say by 14) and these are the new rankings:
1. Bama
2. Arky
3. LSU
4. OSU
Alabama would obviously go on to the SECCG.
How does LSU hold off being jumped by OSU? Bama and LSU both would have 1 loss. Both great teams. Basically the same situation.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:43 pm to drizztiger
Remember 2003 and OU after losing big time to KSU. They still got in and lost their CCG
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:47 pm to LSUFAN2
quote:
Remember 2003 and OU after losing big time to KSU. They still got in and lost their CCG
Yes, but in my scenario LSU will have not made it to the SECCG. And the same rule should apply then. If OSU really IS truly that strong to jump a number 2 team. Why/How would they not jump a #2 or #3 LSU? LSU is #1 in the computers, but that would change with a loss and OSU would take that spot.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:47 pm to lsumatt
?? For LSUMATT or anyone who can answer...
I believe as long as we beat Arkansas and make the SEC CG we are assured a spot in the BCS game right?
Well... What happens if we lose to UGA?
I believe there is a rule only two teams from a conference can play in a BCS bowl. So if we lose and fall behind Bama, does that mean Bama and UGA get BCS bowls and we get Cap 1 or Cotton?
Beginning to think beating Bama was a huge disadvantage for us.
I believe as long as we beat Arkansas and make the SEC CG we are assured a spot in the BCS game right?
Well... What happens if we lose to UGA?
I believe there is a rule only two teams from a conference can play in a BCS bowl. So if we lose and fall behind Bama, does that mean Bama and UGA get BCS bowls and we get Cap 1 or Cotton?
Beginning to think beating Bama was a huge disadvantage for us.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:51 pm to RollTideRockStar
quote:
How does LSU hold off being jumped by OSU? Bama and LSU both would have 1 loss. Both great teams. Basically the same situation.
Ok State would probably be 1 full spot (maybe a tad less) ahead of LSU in the computers. So LSU needs about 60-75% of the voters to put LSU above Ok State
But in your hypothetical, it looks like Arkansas could re-play Bama in the NC game.
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