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Started By
Message
re: Basis for changing QB's...What makes sense?
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:15 pm to Navytiger74
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:15 pm to Navytiger74
Some folks in this thread are acting as if the clock stopped ticking and that no new data is now in hand. Everyone knows that prior to the off-field issues, that Miles was planning on playing JJ, and that he felt JJ would give us the best chance to win. BUT, and it is a HUGE BUT, since then, 1) Lee has proven to be a much better QB than what Miles previously must have assessed him to be, probably in large part to Krags coaching and also to gettng first team reps with the starters, and 2) JJ has huge emotional issues surrounding him and has missed tremendous time with the team and is not prepared in any way to jump back in stride as if all that did not occur.
So, learn how to think, and realize that this spot in time is TOTALLY different than the day before his issues occured, and NOW, with NEW DATA in hand, and a team playing very well and moving the ball on offense fairly effectively, Miles has a different set of conditions to consider and is much more apt NOW to assess that Lee gives LSU the best chance to win, whereas before he felt JJ did.
Can't you understand that simple concept?
0
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:15 pm to ZTiger87
quote:
So Lee moves the offense a lot better because we average 1 more yard a game? (30 less if you only count games against fbs schools
Time of possession numbers are up.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:16 pm to CptBengal
quote:
which isn't done by ignoring a variable which would have a similar effect on the metrics you are looking at.
Which I never did.
quote:
....you don't like the answer, that doesn't mean there was no point.
It has nothing to do with no liking the answer. Your summary of my analysis was simply factually incorrect. I'd be happy to discuss assumptions based on data so long as we properly acknowledge the data used.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:20 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Which I never did.
you said you were attempting to isolate the former OC...yet claimed JJ's play would have been improved.
quote:
t has nothing to do with no liking the answer.
So you're moving the goal posts too...I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you hasdn't structured your argument fully. However after reading your posts the last few pages, you have also changed your argument point.
quote:
I'd be happy to discuss assumptions based on data so long as we properly acknowledge the data used.
Sure, where do you want to start? The OC/QB combination on offensive effectiveness?
Because I say Krags/Studd/JL is far superior to GC/JJ.
Don't you?
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:21 pm to MandevilleLSUTiger
quote:
Time of possession numbers are up.
3 more minutes a game and we average 1 more yard. Defense also plays a part in t.o.p. Tempo as well. Oregon and Miss St. both tried to run hurry up offenses and it backfired.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:23 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Because I say Krags/Studd/JL is far superior to GC/JJ.
Let's keep in mind that JJ was coached by Krag as well here. He is still an unknown because of this.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:24 pm to c on z
quote:
Let's keep in mind that JJ was coached by Krag as well here.
I'm sure he has been. But it means little in my comparison.
quote:
He is still an unknown because of this.
he is still an unknown because his actions got him suspended form the team indefinitely.
so, in conclusion to your meaningless point:
quote:
I say Krags/Studd/JL is far superior to GC/JJ.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:25 pm to MandevilleLSUTiger
quote:
Time of possession numbers are up.
Yep. As well as another other very important statistic:
3rd down efficiency: 47.5% compared to 38% each year over the last three years
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:27 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Because I say Krags/Studd/JL is far superior to GC/JJ.
Not by much at this point, and the stud/jj offense was better than this years offense has been.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:29 pm to ZTiger87
quote:
Not by much at this point,
in almost very category.
quote:
the stud/jj offense was better than this years offense has been.
what offense was that? Cotton Bowl?
you think a whole new offense was installed for the cotton bowl? 
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:32 pm to CptBengal
quote:
you said you were attempting to isolate the former OC...yet claimed JJ's play would have been improved.
I claimed that I can assume that Jefferson's play would be improved based on the overall analysis, not simply looking at the four games without Crowton.
quote:
So you're moving the goal posts too...I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you hasdn't structured your argument fully. However after reading your posts the last few pages, you have also changed your argument point.
Where?
My arguing points have been pretty consistent since the summer of 2009.
quote:
Sure, where do you want to start? The OC/QB combination on offensive effectiveness?
Because I say Krags/Studd/JL is far superior to GC/JJ.
Don't you?
Far superior, no. Superior, yes.
And, I would argue it a step further by saying that based on the overall data, a Krags/Stud/JJ combination wouldn't differ all that much from a Krags/Stud/Lee combination.
However, a GC/Lee combination would be less effective than the current Krags/Stud/Lee combination.
Hence my opinion that the most volatile variable in LSU's offensive equation was Crowton.
This post was edited on 9/19/11 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:34 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
3rd down efficiency: 47.5% compared to 38% each year over the last three years
Those numbers are propped up by the NSU game. We are 37% against oregon and miss st.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:36 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
based on the overall data, a Krags/Stud/JJ combination wouldn't differ all that much from a Krags/Stud/Lee combination.
i can't make that same assumption, based on JJ's actual play last year for a number of games....that seems to be a stretch.
quote:
However, a GC/Lee combination would be less effective than the current Krags/Stud/Lee combination.
I agree.
That's why I put it
Krags/Stud/JL >>>> Krags/Stud/JJ >>>> GC/JL >>>> GC/JJ
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:36 pm to ZTiger87
quote:
3 more minutes a game and we average 1 more yard. Defense also plays a part in t.o.p. Tempo as well. Oregon and Miss St. both tried to run hurry up offenses and it backfired.
The offense this year is far and away more efficient, consistent and reliable than last year... period.
quote:
ZTiger87
Not disagreeing with you, just used your post as a sample to respond to.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:38 pm to CptBengal
quote:
That's why I put it
Krags/Stud/JL >>>> Krags/Stud/JJ >>>> GC/JL >>>> GC/JJ
So you agree that Crowton was the most volatile variable?
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:40 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
So you agree that Crowton was the most volatile variable?
never said he wasn't.
Just also believe that JJ was a large contributor to the problems on offense last year.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:41 pm to ccomeaux
quote:
The offense this year is far and away more efficient, consistent and reliable than last year... period.
We are better in most areas, but not far and away better. Again, 1 more yard a game, 30 less against fbs schools. We have run 4 more plays than our opponents this year. Last year we ran 17 more plays. The difference in t.o.p. is because oregon and state ran hurry up offenses and we didn't.
This post was edited on 9/19/11 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:44 pm to ZTiger87
quote:
Those numbers are propped up by the NSU game. We are 37% against oregon and miss st.
uh, he was comparing against the average which also included App St, N. Texas, La Tech, McNeese, Tulane, Monroe, ULL, etc.
It was a glorious fail, however
Posted on 9/19/11 at 2:55 pm to Navytiger74
quote:No, they seem quite clearly to be in the "regardless of what may appear to be the case in practice, on the field Lee is getting it done therefore he is what gives us a better chance to win" camp. Frankly, I can see their point even if I don't necessarily agree.
So you're both in the "Lee should play even if JJ gives us a better chance to win" camp?
There are lots of times in life when everything we think we know (and I'm talking about actual professionals, not idiot ranters or commentators or whatever) tells us one choice should be the most successful, but circumstances arise that reveal that another choice -- however unlikely it may seem -- is in reality the more successful one. As a football related example, I would point to Tom Brady and Drew Bledsoe. Clearly Belichick and Charlie Weiss (who presumably know something about evaluating QBs) thought that Bledsoe gave the Patriots the best chance to win in 2001. It seems self-evident that there were some reasons for them to believe that based on what they saw in practice, training camp, film, etc. And yet, once Tom Brady took over the team, the evidence on the field in the actual games was too strong to ignore. It is entirely possible that Bledsoe in fact would still give the Patriots the best chance to win, but benching Brady in order to find out was considered not worth the risk. The job was getting done, and done well, so there was no reason to tinker with it no matter how much the alternative may look better in practice or on paper.
It's not about Lee being better than Jefferson, it's about LSU being good enough to win every game and win the National Championship the way things are now. Any time that is true -- with any combination of personel, coaching, scheme, whatever -- it should take an absolutely overwhelming mountain of reasons to change anything up.
That being said, if Coach Miles, Coach Studrawa and Coach Kragthorpe feel such a mountain of reasons exists, then they should make whatever change they think best.
Posted on 9/19/11 at 3:08 pm to just me
quote:
These are not just my opinions about you. Everyone shares these opinions.
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