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re: Reading "Liar's Poker" now....
Posted on 2/6/11 at 1:18 pm to RedStickBR
Posted on 2/6/11 at 1:18 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Well if you're a super nerd like me, you'd re-read your notes once a month or share important tidbits with your TD friends.
The difference is I don't have any friends on TD....
I liked this quote from Liar's Poker: "Most of the time when markets move, no one has any idea why."
I will think of that quote (although I've believed the idea for years) the next time a talking head on CNBC tries to explain why the market went up (down) which happens everyday.
Posted on 2/6/11 at 1:43 pm to LSURussian
quote:Perfect example is with the Egypt thing. Some say the market is up because things in Egypt can get worst.
I will think of that quote (although I've believed the idea for years) the next time a talking head on CNBC tries to explain why the market went up (down) which happens everyday.
quote:Found that on Mises.
In fact, the only real force that ultimately makes the stock market or any market rise (and, to a large extent, fall) over the longer term is simply changes in the quantity of money and the volume of spending in the economy. Stocks rise when there is inflation of the money supply (i.e., more money in the economy and in the markets). This truth has many consequences that should be considered.
Since stock markets can fall — and fall often — to various degrees for numerous reasons (including a decline in the quantity of money and spending), our focus here will be only on why they are able to rise in a sustained fashion over the longer term.
This post was edited on 2/6/11 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 2/7/11 at 1:25 pm to LSURussian
quote:
"Most of the time when markets move, no one has any idea why."
I will think of that quote (although I've believed the idea for years) the next time a talking head on CNBC tries to explain why the market went up (down) which happens everyday.
Kai Risdoll says this almost every day. "Stocks were up today on news that [whatever.]" But it's almost a rorschact test, because you can spin almost anything as either good news or bad news.
Say oil prices go up - you can say "stocks rose today as energy companies get a boost from rising prices" or "stocks fell today, led by transportation companies taking a hit over fears of increased fuel costs." Either of them sounds plausible by itself; neither is necessarily true.
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