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Started By
Message
LSU can definitely get in without winning the SEC
Posted on 11/8/10 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 7:49 pm
Just ran a scenario in my BCS calculator.
1)Auburn wins out, no1 in all polls and computers, I imagine this happens if they win out.
2)Oregon loses, and drops below LSU in human polls, they are of course crushed by the computers.
3)LSU's human poll numbers equate to a "pure" 4, i.e. they need at least 2508 pts in harris and 1298 in AP.
4)LSU's computer average is 2
5)TCU drops to 5 average in computers while teams in real conferences play real games.
6)Boise picks up 16 votes in the Harris and 6 votes in the coaches poll in beating a top 25 nevada team on the road while TCU finishes against cupcakes.
Now I know lsumatt has said its "FACT" that LSU needs to win the SEC to get in the BCSCG, but barring voter prejudice, it seems like it can happen. This is simply one of many possible scenarios that could occur.
In this scenario it comes out
Auburn TCU Boise LSU
1.0000000 0.9065537 0.8932203 0.9066667
1)Auburn wins out, no1 in all polls and computers, I imagine this happens if they win out.
2)Oregon loses, and drops below LSU in human polls, they are of course crushed by the computers.
3)LSU's human poll numbers equate to a "pure" 4, i.e. they need at least 2508 pts in harris and 1298 in AP.
4)LSU's computer average is 2
5)TCU drops to 5 average in computers while teams in real conferences play real games.
6)Boise picks up 16 votes in the Harris and 6 votes in the coaches poll in beating a top 25 nevada team on the road while TCU finishes against cupcakes.
Now I know lsumatt has said its "FACT" that LSU needs to win the SEC to get in the BCSCG, but barring voter prejudice, it seems like it can happen. This is simply one of many possible scenarios that could occur.
In this scenario it comes out
Auburn TCU Boise LSU
1.0000000 0.9065537 0.8932203 0.9066667
8
Posted on 11/8/10 at 7:52 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Now I know lsumatt has said its "FACT" that LSU needs to win the SEC to get in the BCSCG, but barring voter prejudice, it seems like it can happen.
DUDE - that is not even a mischaracterization, it's the OPPOSITE of what Matt is saying. LSU Matt said today, in bold 'YOU DO NOT HAVE TO WIN YOUR CONFERENCE TO GO TO THE BCS CG'
He also laid out several scenarios in which LSU can get in. He is slightly more conservative than some of us, but don't lie on him. He's one of the most consistent and factually accurate guys posting about the BCS formulas and permutations.
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 7:53 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 7:56 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
LSU Matt said today, in bold 'YOU DO NOT HAVE TO WIN YOUR CONFERENCE TO GO TO THE BCS CG'
3 times....
Posted on 11/8/10 at 7:56 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Now I know lsumatt has said its "FACT" that LSU needs to win the SEC to get in the BCSCG
You read...poorly.
I have clearly stated scenarios where LSU gets in without winning the SEC. It involves 3 of the following 4:
1. Oregon Loses
2. TCU loses
3. Auburn loses to Bama and SECCG
4. Boise loses and/or the Big12 winner finishes with 2 losses*
*I personally think both need to happen
Posted on 11/8/10 at 7:58 pm to Turbeauxdog
What if Auburn loses to Bama and in the SECchampionship game? There is a real chance Oregon will lose a game as well. LSU early lose will be better than their late loss. LSU strength of schedule is better than theirs, the computers will move us up.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:00 pm to Common sence
I hate being an arse...I really do.
But the scenarios where LSU makes the Title game are clearly spelled out in a stickied thread. I can't see another realistic way LSU makes it than the ones stated.
But the scenarios where LSU makes the Title game are clearly spelled out in a stickied thread. I can't see another realistic way LSU makes it than the ones stated.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:02 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Just ran a scenario in my BCS calculator.
quote:
1)Auburn wins out, no1 in all polls and computers, I imagine this happens if they win out.
Well what the hell does your calculator say?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:03 pm to lsumatt
quote:
We absolutely HAVE to win the SEC to pass unbeaten TCU. You are crazy to think otherwise. In order to play AU the following has to happen: 1. Oregon Loses 2. Nebraska Loses 3. TCU loses 4. Boise probably has to lose. Those first 3 (and probably 4) are musts for LSU to play Auburn. That is a FACT.
Now I know you have done a lot of posting today, and its understandable to lose track of all your statements, but this post is what made me go take a look in the first place because it didn't seem right.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:03 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
3)LSU's human poll numbers equate to a "pure" 4, i.e. they need at least 2508 pts in harris and 1298 in AP.
So not a single voter puts Oregon (the Pac10 champ), Nebraska (the Big 12 Champ), or the Big10 champ above the SECW runner ups?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:04 pm to Turbeauxdog
This is just my opinion, but LSU should not play for the National Title if it does not win it's own division (West). I am not even talking about a conference title. Auburn shouldn't have to play LSU twice under any circumstances if that should play out as well. LSU had it's shot at Auburn. It's not fair to do that to Auburn either. Like I said that's just my view. I want Auburn to lose to Ga and Bama, and LSU to win out.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:04 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Now I know you have done a lot of posting today, and its understandable to lose track of all your statements, but this post is what made me go take a look in the first place because it didn't seem right.
Hell yeah, I said that. I didn't say we couldn't play for the title if we didn't win the SEC. If TCU LOSES we can play for a NC without winning the SEC
Idiot.
Pleas show me where I said :
quote:
lsumatt has said its "FACT" that LSU needs to win the SEC to get in the BCSCG
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 8:06 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:04 pm to Turbeauxdog
how about throw aside all the math and say we win out, auburn loses to bama and the sec championship game, oregon loses, and we are in against tcu.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:05 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Idiot.
TCU doesn't lose in the scenario I spelled out.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:06 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
TCU doesn't lose in the scenario I spelled out.
And that scenario can't realistically happen. Which teams are above TCU in the computers, but don't have a single vote above LSU in the human polls?
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:11 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Now I know you have done a lot of posting today, and its understandable to lose track of all your statements, but this post is what made me go take a look in the first place because it didn't seem right.
Passing an unbeaten TCU is not the same as getting into the game, you realize that? You read poorly.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:12 pm to lsumatt
Matt,
How many more does do these teams have? I know that we have 3 and Auburn only has 2 ... how about Oregon and TCU? Boise?
Gotta make me a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP CHECKLIST!
How many more does do these teams have? I know that we have 3 and Auburn only has 2 ... how about Oregon and TCU? Boise?
Gotta make me a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP CHECKLIST!
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:15 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Which teams are above TCU in the computers, but don't have a single vote above LSU in the human polls?
Not necessary, and I never said it was. I said our poll number had to equate to a pure four, that means for every 4th place vote nebraska gets, we need a 3rd place vote. Maybe TCU struggles in the coming weeks and it turns a couple of voters off the non-qualifiers.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:15 pm to Ace Midnight
The problem is you need 1-loss Big 12 champ and 1-loss Big10 teams to create your wedge in the computers. But those teams definitely steal votes from LSU in the human polls, making LSU effectively lower than #4 in the human polls.
The best LSU can do without TCU and Auburn losing, is have Nebraska, Ok State, Wisconsin, Stanford, MSU, Ohio State, and BOISE all lose again in addition to UO. That makes the computers:
COMPUTERS
1. AU
2. LSU
3. TCU
POLLS
1. AU
2. TCU
3. LSU
TCU should have a stranglehold on the #3 position in the computers (or better), so LSU would need more than 25% of the humans to vote LSU over TCU...and I don't believe it. Plus some voters would put Oregon (as Pac10 champs) above LSU
The best LSU can do without TCU and Auburn losing, is have Nebraska, Ok State, Wisconsin, Stanford, MSU, Ohio State, and BOISE all lose again in addition to UO. That makes the computers:
COMPUTERS
1. AU
2. LSU
3. TCU
POLLS
1. AU
2. TCU
3. LSU
TCU should have a stranglehold on the #3 position in the computers (or better), so LSU would need more than 25% of the humans to vote LSU over TCU...and I don't believe it. Plus some voters would put Oregon (as Pac10 champs) above LSU
This post was edited on 11/8/10 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:16 pm to Turbeauxdog
You said TCU drops to 5 in the computers. Please list the computer top 5...
Posted on 11/8/10 at 8:18 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Passing an unbeaten TCU is not the same as getting into the game, you realize that? You read poorly.
Fail. My scenario has us ahead of an unbeaten TCU and not winning the SEC. Read the scenario or stay out of the thread.
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