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Started By
Message
LSU-AUBIE rematch for BCS title can happen - here's how...
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:33 pm
LSU can reach the title game a number of ways, if we win out and get enough help from others.
But the craziest outcome, an all-SEC BCS title game, is also possible, and it's not all that far-fetched.
Here's how it could happen...
Oregon must lose one, for us to have any chance for an Aubie rematch. They still have 2 tough PAC-10 road games and Arizona at home.
Aubie must go unbeaten or lose one, to either Bama or in the SECCG. They can likely hang onto #1 or #2, if they do that.
Right now, many think a 1-loss LSU can NOT get ahead of an undefeated TCU, but I think that is short-sighted, present-day thinking and could easily change over the next 3 weeks if we continue to win.
And that Arkie win at the end (and also a possible win by Bama over Aubie) will add serious additional cred to this LSU team, for both pollsters and computers.
I think the pollsters might then move us up enough in the human polls that, together with our improved computer rankings, LSU might just edge out TCU in the final BCS ranking.
Just my opinion, but I believe all it might take for us to play Aubie for the BCS title is:
1) We win out (and it will certainly help if Arkie beats UTEP and Miss State, before we beat them).
2) Oregon loses one.
3) And Aubie goes undefeated or loses one, to either Bama or in the SECCG.
IMHO, the above scenario is not hard to envision happening, and it's probably much more likely than what actually happened in just the last week in 2007, for us to get into the title game.
Where is my logic faulty?
But the craziest outcome, an all-SEC BCS title game, is also possible, and it's not all that far-fetched.
Here's how it could happen...
Oregon must lose one, for us to have any chance for an Aubie rematch. They still have 2 tough PAC-10 road games and Arizona at home.
Aubie must go unbeaten or lose one, to either Bama or in the SECCG. They can likely hang onto #1 or #2, if they do that.
Right now, many think a 1-loss LSU can NOT get ahead of an undefeated TCU, but I think that is short-sighted, present-day thinking and could easily change over the next 3 weeks if we continue to win.
And that Arkie win at the end (and also a possible win by Bama over Aubie) will add serious additional cred to this LSU team, for both pollsters and computers.
I think the pollsters might then move us up enough in the human polls that, together with our improved computer rankings, LSU might just edge out TCU in the final BCS ranking.
Just my opinion, but I believe all it might take for us to play Aubie for the BCS title is:
1) We win out (and it will certainly help if Arkie beats UTEP and Miss State, before we beat them).
2) Oregon loses one.
3) And Aubie goes undefeated or loses one, to either Bama or in the SECCG.
IMHO, the above scenario is not hard to envision happening, and it's probably much more likely than what actually happened in just the last week in 2007, for us to get into the title game.
Where is my logic faulty?
9
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:35 pm to purple passion
We will not pass an undefeated TCU without playing in the SEC Championship game.
They have us both in humans and comps. Even if we close the comp gap, the humans will go TCu over a rematch anyday.
They have us both in humans and comps. Even if we close the comp gap, the humans will go TCu over a rematch anyday.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:39 pm to igoringa
If TCU or Boise goes undefeated...they would go ahead of a SEC Champ-less, one loss LSU team. I don't agree with it...but it's the truth.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:43 pm to PurpNGold7
Lot of "what if's" for that to happen.
I have as much chance winning the lotto before two teams from the same division in the same conf play each other in the BCS championship game.
It just won't happen, as much as we'd like it to. I think half the SEC West Div teams are better than 90% of the 120 FBS teams.
I have as much chance winning the lotto before two teams from the same division in the same conf play each other in the BCS championship game.
It just won't happen, as much as we'd like it to. I think half the SEC West Div teams are better than 90% of the 120 FBS teams.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:44 pm to purple passion
Won't happen
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:46 pm to purple passion
Nobody in the media wants to see a rematch of a game where we got spanked hard.
Media will vote us as the lowest one loss team if it gets to that scenario.
Media will vote us as the lowest one loss team if it gets to that scenario.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:47 pm to Paulu
a one loss lsu team, going to the sec title game and winning may still not be enough to pass an undefeated tcu....
sorry
sorry
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:48 pm to purple passion
It is possible, but it is more than highly improbable. It will never be allowed to happen, but that is probably exactly what should happen to determine who the best team in the nation is. But we know that the BCS is really not meant to determine who the best team in the nation really is.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:48 pm to Paulu
it will never happen...
besides the media not wanting it, the coaches not wanting it, the revenues will drop as the TV market will narrow.
will not happen
besides the media not wanting it, the coaches not wanting it, the revenues will drop as the TV market will narrow.
will not happen
Posted on 11/8/10 at 12:56 pm to PurpNGold7
quote:
If TCU or Boise goes undefeated...they would go ahead of a SEC Champ-less, one loss LSU team.
As I said, I think that kind of thinking is "today."
LSU winning out over next 3 weeks can change a lot of thinking. We are too new to the BCS title discussion right now.
Keep winning - pollsters will start to re-think LSU, while our computer rankings improve too.
Meanwhile TCU plays more patsies.
I think we would likely jump TCU at the end, throw the whole BCS concept into another meltdown, and continue to cement the notion that Les Miles has mystical powers!
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:18 pm to rbdallas
Good points
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:21 pm to Paulu
Point 1: We've already seen this scenario in 2006. Michigan can tell you how that ended.
Point 2: Nobody is going to leave out TCU after they dismantled Utah.
Point 2: Nobody is going to leave out TCU after they dismantled Utah.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:29 pm to purple passion
See UGA 2007. Not going to happen. Win your conference is what the talking heads told us.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:37 pm to chilge1
quote:
Point 2: Nobody is going to leave out TCU after they dismantled Utah.
LSU does not pass TCU in the BCS without a loss from the Horned Frogs. Period, end of story.
However, I had a detailed post last night explaining how a rematch could certainly take place. Basically if it is between LSU and one other 1-loss conference champ, maybe Nebraska or Wisconsin, then LSU does not get in the game. It will be easy for the media to create a clear gap between LSU and said team without much organization. However, if it is LSU amongst a group of 2-5 1-loss teams, then LSU will almost certainly go unless,
quote:
Media will vote us as the lowest one loss team if it gets to that scenario.
But that would require an organized and cohesive effort to drop LSU in the polls by every voter. Also, if they as group back the wrong 1-loss team, lets say Oregon, then it really won't matter, because LSU will have 3-4 spot lead over Oregon in the computers that would be insurmountable unless the voters just refused to put LSU on the ballot in an effort to keep them out of the game.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:45 pm to chilge1
quote:
Point 2: Nobody is going to leave out TCU after they dismantled Utah.
So this is where we've gotten?? That a blowout of Utah is what a BCS title team hangs its hat on?? Never thought I'd see the day where a team can stake a claim in the BCS champ game with an impressive win over Utah. Freakin Utah?? Serously??
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:56 pm to slackster
quote:
LSU does not pass TCU in the BCS without a loss from the Horned Frogs. Period, end of story.
slack,
I respect your opinion.
But, are you stating that it is already an absolute mathematical impossibility for LSU to edge out an undefeated TCU at the end, no matter how much respect we earn by winning out?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:00 pm to purple passion
Also, the only chance in hell LSU would have is if Auburn is undefeated. A loss for Auburn hurts LSU computer numbers. Even then, LSU will not pass up TCU without a TCU loss. Period, end of story.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:06 pm to purple passion
Only possible way is for the human polls to put Auburn #1, Boise #2, and LSU #3.
1) Oregon would have to lose.
2) TCU would have to lose. TCU's final 2 games are San Diego State (7-2) and New Mexico (1-8) so highly unlikely they're going to lose either.
3) Wisconsin drops below LSU in both the coaches and Harris polls.
Even with this, LSU might have to close the voting gap (# of votes) with Boise in the coaches and Harris polls to pull ahead.
1) Oregon would have to lose.
2) TCU would have to lose. TCU's final 2 games are San Diego State (7-2) and New Mexico (1-8) so highly unlikely they're going to lose either.
3) Wisconsin drops below LSU in both the coaches and Harris polls.
Even with this, LSU might have to close the voting gap (# of votes) with Boise in the coaches and Harris polls to pull ahead.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:08 pm to slackster
I prefer this:
1) Auburn loses to UGA and Bama
2) Oregon drops one of those away games
3) LSU wins out and beats Florida/S. Carolina in SECCG
LSU beats TCU in BCSCG.
At that point even I couldn't be bitching about Miles..
1) Auburn loses to UGA and Bama
2) Oregon drops one of those away games
3) LSU wins out and beats Florida/S. Carolina in SECCG
LSU beats TCU in BCSCG.
At that point even I couldn't be bitching about Miles..
Posted on 11/8/10 at 2:16 pm to purple passion
LSU-Aubie would be nice, but what about an LSU-TCU matchup if Oregon and Auburn lose? Or would it end up being TCU-Boise? Would LSU have enough to get by Auburn if they won the SEC Championship game after a loss in the last game of the season?
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