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Started By
Message
CFB Week 3: 11-7-1 YTD
Posted on 9/16/10 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 9/16/10 at 7:35 pm
Week 3:
Nevada +3
Hawaii +12.5
SMU -23
Troy -3.5
TCU -21.5
Kentucky -24.5
MTSU -4.5
Picks are doing alright. Expected mid 60% and I'm at 61% right now. OM screwed me last week but I can't complain since winning is better than losing.
Nevada +3
Hawaii +12.5
SMU -23
Troy -3.5
TCU -21.5
Kentucky -24.5
MTSU -4.5
Picks are doing alright. Expected mid 60% and I'm at 61% right now. OM screwed me last week but I can't complain since winning is better than losing.
5
Posted on 9/16/10 at 8:29 pm to LSUAlum2001
Wow all those lines are better for me on bookmaker.com 
This post was edited on 9/16/10 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 9/16/10 at 8:31 pm to LSUAlum2001
1 unit per game?
Posted on 9/16/10 at 8:35 pm to LSUzealot
Don't take my word 100% but I think he bets evenly on all the games.
Posted on 9/16/10 at 9:18 pm to LSUzealot
quote:
1 unit per game?
Yes. I define my system as a probability method. I narrow the CFB picks for the week down to 6-12. My method, historically, predicts that out of this set of plays, 60-70% will cover. Since I can't say which, I bet evenly. I've had weeks which were less than 50% and some that were greater than 80%.
This post was edited on 9/16/10 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 9/17/10 at 1:47 pm to LSUAlum2001
My picks for week 3:
Nebraska -3
MTSU -4
Troy -4
LSU -7
Hawaii +12
ECU +19 1/2
Kansas State -4
Arkansas +2
Cal -3
CFB Record thru week 2: 7-8-1 :(
Nebraska -3
MTSU -4
Troy -4
LSU -7
Hawaii +12
ECU +19 1/2
Kansas State -4
Arkansas +2
Cal -3
CFB Record thru week 2: 7-8-1 :(
Posted on 9/17/10 at 1:50 pm to LSUAlum2001
i've been following your picks and like the flat bet method too.
how did k st. look out of curiosity?
how did k st. look out of curiosity?
Posted on 9/17/10 at 3:58 pm to ISDSTiger
quote:
how did k st. look out of curiosity?
K State is on my short list and will probably be a pick in my system sometime this season; probably Baylor in W8 at the earliest.
Posted on 9/18/10 at 9:23 am to LSUAlum2001
1-0 to start W3..
Posted on 9/18/10 at 10:03 am to LSUAlum2001
quote:
LSUalum2001
aren't you the same guy who was pimping some betting website? you pay 150 bucks for the entire year and they have an historical rate of 62% win %...so are these your picks or that website picks? or did you own the website?
Posted on 9/18/10 at 10:26 am to LSUzealot
quote:
aren't you the same guy who was pimping some betting website? you pay 150 bucks for the entire year and they have an historical rate of 62% win %...so are these your picks or that website picks? or did you own the website?
My picks and my site.
Posted on 9/18/10 at 10:33 am to LSUAlum2001
my picks are due thursday at 6pm...can you start making your posts before then? 
Posted on 9/18/10 at 10:34 am to LSUAlum2001
so you were using TD.com to pimp your own site 
Posted on 9/18/10 at 11:01 am to KosmoCramer
quote:
so you were using TD.com to pimp your own site
..something like 3 years ago, I posted links to it.
I can quit posting winners here if you want, because no one likes winners.
Posted on 9/18/10 at 2:44 pm to LSUAlum2001
Posted on 9/18/10 at 4:57 pm to ISDSTiger
Keep postin 'em. I like to see winners. Do you still have your website?
Posted on 9/19/10 at 1:30 am to ISDSTiger
Rough week, I still have faith. A system is a system for a reason, in the long run it'll win out.
Posted on 9/20/10 at 11:47 am to fouldeliverer
quote:
Rough week, I still have faith. A system is a system for a reason, in the long run it'll win out.
Yep.
Troy was -3.5 and up 33-27 with 1:09 to play and UAB was starting their last drive on the 1 yard line. UAB completes a 44 yard hail mary to win the game 34-33. Troy was also up 23-7 or so at half.
Hawaii was getting 12.5 and up 10-0 at half vs Colorado. Colorado wins 31-13.
..that happens sometimes. From 6-3 to 4-5 in a flash.
I'll have picks up later this week. Probably Thursday afternoon if the Thursday night game fits it.
This post was edited on 9/20/10 at 11:50 am
Posted on 9/20/10 at 11:56 am to LSUAlum2001
Yeah, I'm still up for the weekend, due to big bets on Indy and GB, Philly was a push, damn them letting Detriot come back. If new orleans does well tonight I'll have tripled my initial money.
Thinking about laying down money on right angle sports' picks for next week, but I hear once released its very hard to get the line they bet. So many people use them and since they bet small market teams it moves the line a lot.
Thinking about laying down money on right angle sports' picks for next week, but I hear once released its very hard to get the line they bet. So many people use them and since they bet small market teams it moves the line a lot.
This post was edited on 9/20/10 at 11:58 am
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