re: Bookie says they won't play

quote:

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It's a no-lose scenario.
If UNC wins; the gambler loses bet No. 1 and wins bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 20 the gambler wins bet No. 1 and loses bet No. 2 = a wash.
If LSU wins by 2 or 3 the gambler wins bets 1 and 2.
He cannot lose any money.

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This logic is flawed. He has already "won" by betting LSU at -1 before the line shifted.

If he then flips and tries to middle the game he has a TON to lose because he's risking his easy win on the initial bet.

Middling isn't some genius strategy that people try to make it out to be. If you make an initial bet and the lines move enough to consider middling, then you've already won and have gotten a free 3 points on your initial wager.

Not a good situation to get greedy IMO. Take the money and run. You'd be better off applying your winnings from the initial bet onto another game that you like instead of praying for a 1 in 7 shot like the game hitting on the middle.

So in a nutshell your statement that "He cannot lose any money" is a little short sighted. He can (and probably will) lose the money that he was going to win on his first bet of LSU-1. Further, he is taking what could be a relatively stress-free bet of LSU-1 and mandating that the entire game he will be on pins and needles, trying to pray for a scenario in which LSU wins by 2 or 3 points, which is the equivalent of Chinese water torture.