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Started By
Message
re: QB Play: NOT the Major Problem w/the Offense (statistical support)
Posted on 4/20/10 at 5:50 pm to OBUDan
Posted on 4/20/10 at 5:50 pm to OBUDan
So in brief summary:
2007: 80/175, 45.7% total 3rd down conversions played by Flynn
2009: 58/145, 40.0% total 3rd down conversions played by Jefferson
Obviously a drop in both number of attempts and conversion rate. Not a huge difference though (we're talking 7 or 8 conversions).
2007: 39/58, 67.2% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less
2009: 28/49, 57.14% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less
Again a drop in both attempts and conversion rate. Once again, a bigger difference this time but still not major.
2007: 4/17, 23.50% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
2009: 5/14, 35.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
So Jefferson was actually better than Flynn in converting 3rd and short passing situations.
Now, the craziness:
2007: 35/41, 85% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
2009: 23/35, 65.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
Damn. A 20 percent drop in rushing conversions. That's truly unbelievable. Remember those 7-8 conversions I was talking about earlier? If we convert 8 more 3rd and 4 or less RUSHING ATTEMPTS this season, that's 7 or 8 extended drives and an 88% conversion rate (similar to 2007).
To go further:
2007: 41/117, 35.04% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more.
2009: 30/96, 31.25% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more.
Not a major change...
2007: 35/98, 35.70% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in passing attempts.
2009: 24/76, 31.57% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in passing attempts.
Again, not much difference between the two.
2007: 6/19, 31.50% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in rushing attempts.
2009: 6/20, 30.00% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in rushing attempts.
Totally negligible difference.
So, what do we glean from these statistics?
a) Flynn is better (albeit only slightly) than JJ in converting 3rd and 5 or more in passing attempts.
b) JJ is better than Flynn in converting 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts.
c) LSU's run game in 2007 was only stopped on 3rd down and short 15% of the time. LSU's run game in 2009 was stopped on 3rd down and short 35% of the time.
d) LSU ran 771 total plays in 2009. In 2007 they ran 1054. Our opponents ran nearly 200 more plays than us last season. This is partially the fault of the defense. It also illustrates the inability of the offense to pick up 1st downs and keep drives alive.
To me, this plainly illustrates that the major drop off in the offense occurred in the rushing attack, not the passing attack.
The stats back up that JJ performed either better, just as well or slightly worse than Flynn from a purely performance standpoint. So why then should the downfall of the offense be blamed on "poor QB play?"
4) Attrition
You can refer to the other post linked above for the finer points, but this, in my opinion is the major reason for our downfall.
Last year's team had a Senior class from the 2005 recruiting class. OF that class you had Lyle Hitt and Ciron Black as OL starters. Both underachieved this season, and Hitt shouldn't have been on the field (coaching mistake).
From the 2006 class that should be redshirt juniors/true seniors you lost: Matt Allen, Steven Singleton, Zhamal Thomas, and Mark Snyder to attrition. Singleton and Thomas will be starters this year for rival SEC teams (South Carolina and Arkansas respectively). Snyder and Allen didn't work out, but that happens. The other two were lost for disciplinary reasons. Could a 6'3 296 lb(Singleton) and a 6'5, 343 lb. not have helped last season when we're playing a 6'6, 280 LG?
From the 2007 class that would be redshirt sophomores/true juniors you had Joseph Barksdale, Josh Dworaczyk & T-Bob Hebert starting. Of the 3, Barksdale was the only one who wasn't a "project" in terms of needing to add major body weight/strength to play. From that class we lost Ernest McCoy, 6'5 330 lbs., and Jarvis Jones, 6'7, 290 pounds, both of whom had shone out in practices.
Essentially we lost all the beefy, grind it out OL from 3 consecutive classes, so we ended up playing some players before they were ready (Dworacyzk and Hebert) and others due to lack of talented depth/poor coaching decisions (Hitt).
As a result, our run game went leaps and bounds backwards, becoming half as productive.
On the surface, it is easy to blame Crowton, Jefferson and the QB play for our struggles. I openly acknowledge that Crowton isn't a world beater OC and JJ isn't an All-American type of QB (yet).
But survey the data for yourself. What does it suggest to you?
To me, it says that we have a run game which was basically a non factor (there were quite a few of those 3rd and shorts that were 3rd and goal to go and ended in FGs). With a nonperforming run game more pressure is placed upon the QB to excel. JJ wasn't (and maybe still isn't) to the point of simply throwing his team on his back and completing 35/50 passes and winning games.
So essentially, last season we were a ball control/clock control offense that couldn't control the ball or the clock.
I expect the new beef up front and new backs this season to add an extra 1,000 yards on the LSU rushing attack, making LSU a capable offense once again.
eta: The lone downfall to the study is that these numbers are compiled purely off stat sheet review and there is no accounting for dropped passes and other variables.
2007: 80/175, 45.7% total 3rd down conversions played by Flynn
2009: 58/145, 40.0% total 3rd down conversions played by Jefferson
Obviously a drop in both number of attempts and conversion rate. Not a huge difference though (we're talking 7 or 8 conversions).
2007: 39/58, 67.2% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less
2009: 28/49, 57.14% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less
Again a drop in both attempts and conversion rate. Once again, a bigger difference this time but still not major.
2007: 4/17, 23.50% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
2009: 5/14, 35.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
So Jefferson was actually better than Flynn in converting 3rd and short passing situations.
Now, the craziness:
2007: 35/41, 85% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
2009: 23/35, 65.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
Damn. A 20 percent drop in rushing conversions. That's truly unbelievable. Remember those 7-8 conversions I was talking about earlier? If we convert 8 more 3rd and 4 or less RUSHING ATTEMPTS this season, that's 7 or 8 extended drives and an 88% conversion rate (similar to 2007).
To go further:
2007: 41/117, 35.04% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more.
2009: 30/96, 31.25% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more.
Not a major change...
2007: 35/98, 35.70% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in passing attempts.
2009: 24/76, 31.57% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in passing attempts.
Again, not much difference between the two.
2007: 6/19, 31.50% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in rushing attempts.
2009: 6/20, 30.00% in conversions on 3rd and 5 or more in rushing attempts.
Totally negligible difference.
So, what do we glean from these statistics?
a) Flynn is better (albeit only slightly) than JJ in converting 3rd and 5 or more in passing attempts.
b) JJ is better than Flynn in converting 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts.
c) LSU's run game in 2007 was only stopped on 3rd down and short 15% of the time. LSU's run game in 2009 was stopped on 3rd down and short 35% of the time.
d) LSU ran 771 total plays in 2009. In 2007 they ran 1054. Our opponents ran nearly 200 more plays than us last season. This is partially the fault of the defense. It also illustrates the inability of the offense to pick up 1st downs and keep drives alive.
To me, this plainly illustrates that the major drop off in the offense occurred in the rushing attack, not the passing attack.
The stats back up that JJ performed either better, just as well or slightly worse than Flynn from a purely performance standpoint. So why then should the downfall of the offense be blamed on "poor QB play?"
4) Attrition
You can refer to the other post linked above for the finer points, but this, in my opinion is the major reason for our downfall.
Last year's team had a Senior class from the 2005 recruiting class. OF that class you had Lyle Hitt and Ciron Black as OL starters. Both underachieved this season, and Hitt shouldn't have been on the field (coaching mistake).
From the 2006 class that should be redshirt juniors/true seniors you lost: Matt Allen, Steven Singleton, Zhamal Thomas, and Mark Snyder to attrition. Singleton and Thomas will be starters this year for rival SEC teams (South Carolina and Arkansas respectively). Snyder and Allen didn't work out, but that happens. The other two were lost for disciplinary reasons. Could a 6'3 296 lb(Singleton) and a 6'5, 343 lb. not have helped last season when we're playing a 6'6, 280 LG?
From the 2007 class that would be redshirt sophomores/true juniors you had Joseph Barksdale, Josh Dworaczyk & T-Bob Hebert starting. Of the 3, Barksdale was the only one who wasn't a "project" in terms of needing to add major body weight/strength to play. From that class we lost Ernest McCoy, 6'5 330 lbs., and Jarvis Jones, 6'7, 290 pounds, both of whom had shone out in practices.
Essentially we lost all the beefy, grind it out OL from 3 consecutive classes, so we ended up playing some players before they were ready (Dworacyzk and Hebert) and others due to lack of talented depth/poor coaching decisions (Hitt).
As a result, our run game went leaps and bounds backwards, becoming half as productive.
On the surface, it is easy to blame Crowton, Jefferson and the QB play for our struggles. I openly acknowledge that Crowton isn't a world beater OC and JJ isn't an All-American type of QB (yet).
But survey the data for yourself. What does it suggest to you?
To me, it says that we have a run game which was basically a non factor (there were quite a few of those 3rd and shorts that were 3rd and goal to go and ended in FGs). With a nonperforming run game more pressure is placed upon the QB to excel. JJ wasn't (and maybe still isn't) to the point of simply throwing his team on his back and completing 35/50 passes and winning games.
So essentially, last season we were a ball control/clock control offense that couldn't control the ball or the clock.
I expect the new beef up front and new backs this season to add an extra 1,000 yards on the LSU rushing attack, making LSU a capable offense once again.
eta: The lone downfall to the study is that these numbers are compiled purely off stat sheet review and there is no accounting for dropped passes and other variables.
This post was edited on 4/20/10 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 4/20/10 at 6:02 pm to OBUDan
It does not matter who the qb or the rb is if the oline can't block.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 6:04 pm to OBUDan
Good breakdown. I do think the competition each faced should be looked at as well, but I agree, we get this new line to mesh and let Ford, Ridley and Murphy tote the rock and we'll have a formidable ground attack imo.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 6:24 pm to OBUDan
Yay! Your post gives me reason to hope.
National championship, here we come!
National championship, here we come!
Posted on 4/20/10 at 6:57 pm to OBUDan
The one glaring hole in your argument OBUDan is that JJ had a running game in the spring game and looked like his head was up his arse.
Even knowing that he wasn't going to get hit, was rarely on target, even adding in three drops.
I don't deny that the running game was non-existent last year, but trying to paint JJ as some great gift to quarterbacking is just stretching it. When we needed him to make plays, he rarely made them - period.
Now, if he's the starter come September, then by God I'll be pulling for him to prove me wrong, just as I'll be pulling for every guy wearing P&G every fall Saturday.
Just as some of us could see that Smoke wasn't the answer for the baseball team, I'm just not convinced that JJ's the answer for the football team, and I'm not really sure if that guy is on scholarship yet.
Even knowing that he wasn't going to get hit, was rarely on target, even adding in three drops.
I don't deny that the running game was non-existent last year, but trying to paint JJ as some great gift to quarterbacking is just stretching it. When we needed him to make plays, he rarely made them - period.
Now, if he's the starter come September, then by God I'll be pulling for him to prove me wrong, just as I'll be pulling for every guy wearing P&G every fall Saturday.
Just as some of us could see that Smoke wasn't the answer for the baseball team, I'm just not convinced that JJ's the answer for the football team, and I'm not really sure if that guy is on scholarship yet.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:00 pm to OBUDan
Great post. It's easy to see why the OL struggled when you look at all the beef that either transferred or got shown the door for breaking team rules. It's hard to start young undersized guys on the OL in the SEC and have a dominate running game. Hopefully that unit will mature more over the summer and play better. The good news is we should find out in the first game if we are going to be able to run the ball better this season.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:47 pm to OBUDan
What % was a failed 3-long given to QB SAC?
Posted on 4/20/10 at 9:49 pm to OBUDan
quote:
re
Thank you for all that break down of statistics
of our offense/defense of 07 vs. 09.......
I would hope that some of our coaches have broken it down like you have, and therefore
can begin to fix it.
Great job.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:13 pm to OBUDan
So, without reading past the fifth post (will do it, but first things first), here's what this tells me:
1) You have more time off than you need,
2) LSU needs to figure out how to hang on to the ball more in 2010,
3) Football is still not here.
Other than that, my only "rant-driven" comment is that your analysis, as you point out, does not take into account that the defenses faced in 2009 really did not have to play the pass, so they were able to load up on the run game, whereas the defenses the 2007 team faced had to play against a well balanced attack, so comparison of the stats does not even begin to tell the real story.
:lol:
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
1) You have more time off than you need,
2) LSU needs to figure out how to hang on to the ball more in 2010,
3) Football is still not here.
Other than that, my only "rant-driven" comment is that your analysis, as you point out, does not take into account that the defenses faced in 2009 really did not have to play the pass, so they were able to load up on the run game, whereas the defenses the 2007 team faced had to play against a well balanced attack, so comparison of the stats does not even begin to tell the real story.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:57 pm to OBUDan
Lots of interesting stats (thanks for the effort).
But if the takeaway point is supposed to be that JJ is as good as Flynn then I would question the overall approach.
There were games in '07 (e.g., Bama) where we didn't run the ball that well and Matt did a great job chunking it. Flynn's understanding of the O and decision making was way ahead of JJ.
If it's just to point out that the OL was bigger problem than QB - ok. They really didn't complement one another but they're both big problems.
But if the takeaway point is supposed to be that JJ is as good as Flynn then I would question the overall approach.
There were games in '07 (e.g., Bama) where we didn't run the ball that well and Matt did a great job chunking it. Flynn's understanding of the O and decision making was way ahead of JJ.
If it's just to point out that the OL was bigger problem than QB - ok. They really didn't complement one another but they're both big problems.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:16 pm to OBUDan
WOW..........what a great post.
just the facts.
thanks,
lots of positive vibes for this year.
just the facts.
thanks,
lots of positive vibes for this year.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 11:06 am to OBUDan
quote:
2007: 4/17, 23.50% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
2009: 5/14, 35.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
So Jefferson was actually better than Flynn in converting 3rd and short passing situations.
Now, the craziness:
2007: 35/41, 85% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
2009: 23/35, 65.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
How much of this disparity and the slightly better yards per attempt for Jefferson resulted from Jefferson's sacks being counted as rushing attempts instead of passing attempts?
Posted on 4/22/10 at 1:10 pm to OBUDan
Thanks for the analysis. I'm sure the fact that the coaches chew this stuff all the time is the reason why we won't see a change under center next year.
I think JJ can be a good QB with some more quality work.
I think JJ can be a good QB with some more quality work.
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