re: Forex

I'll give some short answers. Others on here will elaborate, I'm sure.

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2. Will I get killed on fees with a forex trading site if I just waited for the PLN to appreciate (say for 5 or more years) after I buy it?

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There is no way to know which bank you use or what their fees are. If you have access to a money center bank, say in NY, the currency exchange operations there are pretty efficient and fees, while not minimal, won't kill you. But you realize, I hope, that to make any serious money at all, you'll have to really buy a LOT of PLN. If you trade in small amounts, the fees become more significant.

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3. What happens to my PLN if Poland adopts the Euro as its official currency?

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The PLN will be exchanged for euros at whatever the going exchange rate is on the date of the conversion. Instead of PLN, you will be long euros, unless you convert out of PLN before the conversion date. There is no way of knowing this far in advance what the exchange rate will be. Just remember, the French have a big say in what the exchange rate will be.

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5. We are not talking about a lot of money here

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See point 2 above. If it's less than a five digit figure, then you're really just playing for fun. Even a 20% appreciation in the PLN vs. the USD over a 5 year period would be considered a big move historically and yet the yield would be less than 4%/year. And there is always the chance the conversion rate could go against you. Here is the last 5 years $ vs. PLN.



The exchange rate is just about where it was five years ago.

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6. It seems to me that most folks in the investing community feel like the dollar is not going to be all that strong in the coming years. Am I misreading this?

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For every seller of the dollar, there is a buyer. Who has the best crystal ball?