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Message
I did some calculations...
Posted on 12/18/09 at 4:26 am
Posted on 12/18/09 at 4:26 am
Here's a Christmas present to the Rant. Use it at your own risk...
BCSCG (1/7): Alabama (-5) vs. Texas: Texas (ev): 55.5% Texas (+5): 62.4%
Gmac (1/6): C. Michigan (-4) vs. Troy: C. Mich (ev): 63.0% C. Mich (-4): 57.7%
ORANGE (1/5): Georgia Tech (-4) vs. Iowa: G. Tech (ev): 58.8% G. Tech (-4): 54.8%
FIESTA (1/4): TCU (-7) vs Boise State: TCU(ev): 56.3% Boise (+7): 53.4%
Alamo (1/2): Texas Tech (-7) vs. Michigan St.: TTech (ev): 62.6% TTech(-7): 56.2%
Liberty (1/2): East Carolina vs. Arkansas (-8): Arky (ev): 64.2% Arky (-8): 59.2%
Cotton (1/2): Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3): Miss (ev): 51.1% OSU(+3): 52.5%
Papajohns (1/2): UConn vs. South Carolina (-5): UConn (ev): 51.6% UConn(+5): 61.0%
International (1/2): South Florida (-7) vs. Northern Illinois: S. Fla (ev): 61.4% S. Fla(-7): 54.5%
SUGAR (1/1): Cincinnati vs. Florida (-10): UF (ev): 62.1% Cinn(+10): 50.9%
ROSE (1/1): Oregon (-4) vs. Ohio St: Oregon (ev): 55.2% Ohio St(+4): 50.1%
Gator (1/1): West Virginia (-3) vs. Florida St.: WV(ev): 52.1% FSU(+3): 52.0%
Capital One (1/1): Penn St. (-3) vs. LSU: LSU(ev): 53.1% LSU(+3): 57.7%
Outback (1/1): Northwestern vs. Auburn (-7): Aub(ev): 64.2% Aub(-7): 60.4%
Chick-fil-A (12/31): Virginia Tech (-4) vs. Tennessee: VT(ev): 59.4% VT(-4): 54.5%
Insight (12/31): Minnesota (-3) vs. Iowa St.: Iowa St (ev): 50.1% Iowa St. (+3): 53.9%
Texas Bowl (12/31): Missouri (Pk) vs. Navy: Missouri (ev): 57.6%
Sun Bowl (12/31): Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-9): OU(ev): 60.1% OU(-9): 52.2%
Armed Forces (12/31): Air Force vs. Houston (-5): Hou(ev): 52.6% Air Force (+5): 53.1%
Holiday (12/30): Nebraska vs. Arizona (-1): Neb (ev): 59.2% Neb(+1): 60.4%
Humanitarian (12/30): Idaho (-1) vs. Bowling Green: BG(ev): 57.0% BG(+1): 58.4%
Champs Sports (12/29): Miami (-3) vs. Wisconsin: Mia(ev): 59.2% Mia(-3): 55.6%
EagleBank (12/29): UCLA (-4) vs. Temple: UCLA(ev): 59.0% UCLA(-4): 54.9%
Independence (12/28): Texas A&M vs. Georgia (-7) : TA&M(ev): 53.2% TA&M(+7): 59.2%
Music City (12/27): Kentucky vs. Clemson (-7): Clem(ev): 60.1% Clem(-7): 50.5%
Emerald (12/26): Boston College vs. USC (-9): USC(ev): 53.5% BC(+9): 56.0%
Meineke Care Care (12/26): North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh (-3): Pitt(ev): 57.2% Pitt(-3): 53.1%
Little Caesars (12/26): Ohio (-2) vs. Marshall: Ohio(ev): 57.0% Ohio(-2): 54.3%
Hawaii (12/24): Nevada (-14) vs. SMU: Nev(ev): 64.2% Nev(-14): 53.1%
Poinsettia (12/23): Utah vs. California (-3): Cal(ev): 50.7% Utah (+3): 52.7%
Las Vegas (12/22): Oregon State (-2) vs. BYU: OSU(ev): 52.0% BYU(+2): 50.1%
New Orleans Bowl (12/20): M. Tenne St. vs. S. Miss (-3): SM(ev): 54.1% MTSU(+3): 50.6%
St. Petersburg (12/19): Rutgers (-2) vs. C. Florida: Rut(ev): 55.8% Rut(-2): 53.6%
New Mexico (12/19): Wyoming vs. Fresno St. (-10.5): Fresno(ev): 64.2% Fresno(-10.5): 54.6%
BCSCG (1/7): Alabama (-5) vs. Texas: Texas (ev): 55.5% Texas (+5): 62.4%
Gmac (1/6): C. Michigan (-4) vs. Troy: C. Mich (ev): 63.0% C. Mich (-4): 57.7%
ORANGE (1/5): Georgia Tech (-4) vs. Iowa: G. Tech (ev): 58.8% G. Tech (-4): 54.8%
FIESTA (1/4): TCU (-7) vs Boise State: TCU(ev): 56.3% Boise (+7): 53.4%
Alamo (1/2): Texas Tech (-7) vs. Michigan St.: TTech (ev): 62.6% TTech(-7): 56.2%
Liberty (1/2): East Carolina vs. Arkansas (-8): Arky (ev): 64.2% Arky (-8): 59.2%
Cotton (1/2): Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi (-3): Miss (ev): 51.1% OSU(+3): 52.5%
Papajohns (1/2): UConn vs. South Carolina (-5): UConn (ev): 51.6% UConn(+5): 61.0%
International (1/2): South Florida (-7) vs. Northern Illinois: S. Fla (ev): 61.4% S. Fla(-7): 54.5%
SUGAR (1/1): Cincinnati vs. Florida (-10): UF (ev): 62.1% Cinn(+10): 50.9%
ROSE (1/1): Oregon (-4) vs. Ohio St: Oregon (ev): 55.2% Ohio St(+4): 50.1%
Gator (1/1): West Virginia (-3) vs. Florida St.: WV(ev): 52.1% FSU(+3): 52.0%
Capital One (1/1): Penn St. (-3) vs. LSU: LSU(ev): 53.1% LSU(+3): 57.7%
Outback (1/1): Northwestern vs. Auburn (-7): Aub(ev): 64.2% Aub(-7): 60.4%
Chick-fil-A (12/31): Virginia Tech (-4) vs. Tennessee: VT(ev): 59.4% VT(-4): 54.5%
Insight (12/31): Minnesota (-3) vs. Iowa St.: Iowa St (ev): 50.1% Iowa St. (+3): 53.9%
Texas Bowl (12/31): Missouri (Pk) vs. Navy: Missouri (ev): 57.6%
Sun Bowl (12/31): Stanford vs. Oklahoma (-9): OU(ev): 60.1% OU(-9): 52.2%
Armed Forces (12/31): Air Force vs. Houston (-5): Hou(ev): 52.6% Air Force (+5): 53.1%
Holiday (12/30): Nebraska vs. Arizona (-1): Neb (ev): 59.2% Neb(+1): 60.4%
Humanitarian (12/30): Idaho (-1) vs. Bowling Green: BG(ev): 57.0% BG(+1): 58.4%
Champs Sports (12/29): Miami (-3) vs. Wisconsin: Mia(ev): 59.2% Mia(-3): 55.6%
EagleBank (12/29): UCLA (-4) vs. Temple: UCLA(ev): 59.0% UCLA(-4): 54.9%
Independence (12/28): Texas A&M vs. Georgia (-7) : TA&M(ev): 53.2% TA&M(+7): 59.2%
Music City (12/27): Kentucky vs. Clemson (-7): Clem(ev): 60.1% Clem(-7): 50.5%
Emerald (12/26): Boston College vs. USC (-9): USC(ev): 53.5% BC(+9): 56.0%
Meineke Care Care (12/26): North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh (-3): Pitt(ev): 57.2% Pitt(-3): 53.1%
Little Caesars (12/26): Ohio (-2) vs. Marshall: Ohio(ev): 57.0% Ohio(-2): 54.3%
Hawaii (12/24): Nevada (-14) vs. SMU: Nev(ev): 64.2% Nev(-14): 53.1%
Poinsettia (12/23): Utah vs. California (-3): Cal(ev): 50.7% Utah (+3): 52.7%
Las Vegas (12/22): Oregon State (-2) vs. BYU: OSU(ev): 52.0% BYU(+2): 50.1%
New Orleans Bowl (12/20): M. Tenne St. vs. S. Miss (-3): SM(ev): 54.1% MTSU(+3): 50.6%
St. Petersburg (12/19): Rutgers (-2) vs. C. Florida: Rut(ev): 55.8% Rut(-2): 53.6%
New Mexico (12/19): Wyoming vs. Fresno St. (-10.5): Fresno(ev): 64.2% Fresno(-10.5): 54.6%
2
Posted on 12/18/09 at 4:38 am to DocBugbear
Umm 
Can I get the key to knowing what this means? TIA
Can I get the key to knowing what this means? TIAPosted on 12/18/09 at 4:45 am to C
BCSCG (1/7): Alabama (-5) vs. Texas: Texas (ev): 55.5% Texas (+5): 62.4%
This means that in the BCS Championship game on January 7, where Bama is a 5 point favorite over Texas, that Texas has a 55.5% of winning the game and a 62.4% chance of at least staying within 5 points of Bama... etc.
This means that in the BCS Championship game on January 7, where Bama is a 5 point favorite over Texas, that Texas has a 55.5% of winning the game and a 62.4% chance of at least staying within 5 points of Bama... etc.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 4:52 am to DocBugbear
Methodology?
Posted on 12/18/09 at 5:06 am to Doc Fenton
quote:
Methodology?
Least squares fit to put a power rating to each team along with errors. Approximated an error function to produce percentages and curbed these down to deal with otherwise unaccounted for sources of error.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 5:26 am to DocBugbear
Interesting. Thanks.
P.S. -- Does this take into account a team's margins of victory, or is it just based on wins and losses?
quote:
a power rating to each team
P.S. -- Does this take into account a team's margins of victory, or is it just based on wins and losses?
Posted on 12/18/09 at 7:36 am to DocBugbear
quote:
where Bama is a 5 point favorite over Texas, that Texas has a 55.5% of winning the game
Maybe I don't get it, but if Bama is a 5 point favorite, how come Texas has a 55.5% chance of winning the game outright?
Wouldn't that make Texas the favorite- and a pretty solid favorite to boot?
Posted on 12/18/09 at 7:48 am to ClientNumber9
I want all Big 10 schools to lose
Posted on 12/18/09 at 8:28 am to DocBugbear
quote:
Texas has a 55.5% of winning the game
So Alabama has a 44.5 % chance to win! If that's what you're selling, i'm not buying!
This post was edited on 12/18/09 at 8:30 am
Posted on 12/18/09 at 8:34 am to luvmesumlsu
quote:
Maybe I don't get it, but if Bama is a 5 point favorite, how come Texas has a 55.5% chance of winning the game outright? Wouldn't that make Texas the favorite- and a pretty solid favorite to boot?
it means AL has 55.5% of WINNING the odd (which is 3 points)..
that's why each calculation is between 40-60%..
This post was edited on 12/18/09 at 8:37 am
Posted on 12/18/09 at 8:44 am to LSUisOVER9000
quote:
it means AL has 55.5% of WINNING
by that logic, FLorida has a 62.1% chance of losing the Sugar Bowl???
I am really confused if this info is correctly interpreted.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 8:53 am to NimbleCat
quote:
by that logic, FLorida has a 62.1% chance of losing the Sugar Bowl??? I am really confused if this info is correctly interpreted.
Cinn has 50.9% of winning..the odd against them is 10 points. Cinn needs to get within 10 points against FL in order to win the bet, which is why OP gives Cinn 50.9% of winning the bet..not the game
Posted on 12/18/09 at 8:56 am to NimbleCat
Yeah Im still confused.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 9:52 am to C
quote:
Yeah Im still confused.
okai..imagine that the score is FL 30-19..that's 11 difference so FL wins the bet. If the score is FL 30-21...FL won the game but lost the bet. OP gives Cinn 50.9% of winning because the odd is 10 points. If the oddmaker gives Cinn +20 points then the percentage would go higher ex. 61.9%
Posted on 12/18/09 at 12:04 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
P.S. -- Does this take into account a team's margins of victory, or is it just based on wins and losses?
Margin of victory as well as strength of the opponent.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 12:08 pm to ClientNumber9
quote:
Maybe I don't get it, but if Bama is a 5 point favorite, how come Texas has a 55.5% chance of winning the game outright?
The favorite and line are based on the perception of the betting public. More people are betting on Alabama to win, so they are the favorite. By moving the line to 5 points, they get enough people to shift to Texas so that the bets even out.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 12:11 pm to luvmesumlsu
quote:
So Alabama has a 44.5 % chance to win! If that's what you're selling, i'm not buying!
That's not what I was expecting to find when I started crunching the numbers either. But a couple of things to note: First, Bama choked in their bowl game last year (I sure as hell wasn't expecting Utah to beat them), and second, life will be much harder on Bama with neutral refs.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 12:11 pm to C
quote:
Yeah Im still confused.
Posted on 12/18/09 at 12:51 pm to biglego
quote:
Yeah Im still confused.
About?
This post was edited on 12/18/09 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 12/18/09 at 2:45 pm to DocBugbear
OK I understand now.
I was thrown off by
I wasn't paying attention to the teams names just the chance of winning. Sometimes they are the same, sometimes they are different.
Well done!
I was thrown off by
quote:
FIESTA (1/4): TCU (-7) vs Boise State: TCU(ev): 56.3% Boise (+7): 53.4%
I wasn't paying attention to the teams names just the chance of winning. Sometimes they are the same, sometimes they are different.
Well done!
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