re: Interesting Philosophy

I’m a stats guy, but I think the studies which demonstrate a team should never kick are fundamentally flawed because they completely overlook the mental aspect of the game. A team that constantly goes for it will probably have a fourth down conversion percentage similar to most team’s third down rate. Let’s say somewhere between 35 and 40 percent. That’s a lot of times to voluntarily turn the ball over.

A team can normally cope with the occasional turnover due to a bunker mentality or whatever, but to constantly give away field position this way would eventually be demoralizing for a defense. I think a defense would start to play worse and give up points at higher rates than other teams relative to field position due to constantly being on the defensive.

Also, one of the ways onside kicks work is the element of surprise. A team that ALWAYS kicked an onside would see success rates similar to teams in obvious onside situations, which is quite low.

I do think teams should kick less and onside it more often. These are tactical weapons not being used, But to swing the pendulum all the other way is probably not the optimum solution. It is not “no kicking” it is “less kicking”.