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Sales up big in housing... obviously reaching a bottom...
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:25 am
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:25 am
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:29 am to igoringa
The housing market will have bottomed in about 3 months. Due in large part to the treasury forcing down long term rates by buying up bonds.
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:31 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
LINK
Yes the inventory overhang of about 2 million units doesnt hold a chance against short term market fixing by the Fed.
I think I will stick with Shiller on this one thanks. There is massive excess inventory and very few quality buyers on the sidelines (the result of highest housing ownership % ever). Unemployment is worsening... all signs point north. Rents to price, income to price... the evidence is all pretty clear.
Yes the inventory overhang of about 2 million units doesnt hold a chance against short term market fixing by the Fed.
I think I will stick with Shiller on this one thanks. There is massive excess inventory and very few quality buyers on the sidelines (the result of highest housing ownership % ever). Unemployment is worsening... all signs point north. Rents to price, income to price... the evidence is all pretty clear.
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:33 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
The housing market will have bottomed in about 3 months. Due in large part to the treasury forcing down long term rates by buying up bonds.
low interest rates will spur demand, but will not clear the queue of houses. We just have too many out there.
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:34 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:It's kind of hard to get approved for a mortgage if you don't have a job. And we've still got another wave of defaults coming too.
The housing market will have bottomed in about 3 months. Due in large part to the treasury forcing down long term rates by buying up bonds.
If it were March 2010 and you were saying we were 3 months away from the bottom, I might agree with you.
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:38 am to Martavius
Time will tell. I stick by my opinion that housing prices will see a bottom and the overall national decline in prices will be over by summer 2009.
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:41 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Time will tell. I stick by my opinion that housing prices will see a bottom and the overall national decline in prices will be over by summer 2009.
Hope, change has hit the housing market
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:43 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
When I no longer see headlines like this one: 'Escondido House: Over 80% Off Peak Price', I will believe we might be nearing a bottom on housing prices. New home construction is a different can of worms...and CRE is a can of worms that is about to be dumped on us.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 3/23/09 at 10:08 pm to igoringa
I see both sides on this issue. But you cannot possibly compare Baton Rouge to Escondido. (I should have replied to Rivers - whom by the way I admit is much more knowledgable with money)
I lived in Phoenix and experienced the boom. I bought at 150,000 and sold at 265,000 2 years later (it reached a market value of over 300,000 for a while). In that interim it was insane and artificially inflated. There were literally lotteries by builders to have the opportunity to purchase a new home. It was driven both by subprime loans and investors from California. One of my friends had 5 homes as investment properties and recently underwent bankruptcy. As an FYI, that house I sold according to zillow is now in the $170,000 range and dropping like a rock.
The boom in Baton Rouge was much smaller and was actually driven by the demand created from Katrina.
Also, Louisiana unemployment is literally 1/2 of California. Barring a major bust in oil, prices may drop but I cannot see it being nearly on the level of other markets. Hell oil dipped below $30 for a little while and prices remained stable. Now that oil is trading much higher I am hopeful prices continue to remain stable.
EDIT: I thought I was in the Baton Rouge home price thread, so it is probable Rivers was not comparing the two markets.
I lived in Phoenix and experienced the boom. I bought at 150,000 and sold at 265,000 2 years later (it reached a market value of over 300,000 for a while). In that interim it was insane and artificially inflated. There were literally lotteries by builders to have the opportunity to purchase a new home. It was driven both by subprime loans and investors from California. One of my friends had 5 homes as investment properties and recently underwent bankruptcy. As an FYI, that house I sold according to zillow is now in the $170,000 range and dropping like a rock.
The boom in Baton Rouge was much smaller and was actually driven by the demand created from Katrina.
Also, Louisiana unemployment is literally 1/2 of California. Barring a major bust in oil, prices may drop but I cannot see it being nearly on the level of other markets. Hell oil dipped below $30 for a little while and prices remained stable. Now that oil is trading much higher I am hopeful prices continue to remain stable.
EDIT: I thought I was in the Baton Rouge home price thread, so it is probable Rivers was not comparing the two markets.
This post was edited on 3/23/09 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 3/24/09 at 5:18 pm to igoringa
Given what has happened, do those of us wanting a house ( not needing) buy now, or wait a little longer?
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