Oil Prices on Track for Biggest Monthly Jump on Record

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Despite a smattering of headlines this morning about the conflict in the Middle East, oil prices are on track for a historic month.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, for May delivery is up about 55% in March, trading recently around $107 a barrel, the largest monthly percentage gain on record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

U.S. oil prices, as tracked by West Texas Intermediate for May delivery, advanced equally as much and are on track for the largest monthly percentage gain since May 2020, when Covid-19 shutdowns brought the global economy to a halt. United States Oil Fund, a popular way to trade daily price movements in WTI, is up nearly 60% in March, its biggest jump on record.

Consumers are paying more at the pump as a result. Gas prices topped $4 a gallon in the U.S. for the first time since August 2022 on Tuesday.

Crude prices remained above $100 on Tuesday after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump is willing to end the war in Iran. According to the Journal, Trump told aides that he is willing to wind down the military campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Trump also criticized the U.K. and other allies on Tuesday for declining to take part in the attacks on Iran, adding that their options now were either to buy oil from the U.S. or go to the Strait of Hormuz and “just TAKE IT.”

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As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains at least partially blocked, oil prices could remain at or close to the triple-digit level. That could still pose a problem for the stock market in the months ahead.

Asked whether the U.S. would control the waterway after the conflict, Hegseth echoed Trump, urging other countries to do more to open the strait.

Separately, Iran’s parliament has approved a plan to collect tolls on vessels traveling through the waterway, The Journal reported, citing Iranian state media.

Before the war, about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas passed through the key shipping corridor.

The majority of those crude shipments were headed for Asian refineries, and countries there have already taken steps to try to limit energy usage. Bangladesh’s government has shut universities, while Pakistan and the Philippines have introduced shortened workweeks.

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Fortunately, crawfish prices have not followed oil prices. TBD if the inflation on truck nuts makes them unaffordable for the average consumer.