Shock Report: Locking Up Criminals Reduces Crime

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Forgive the snark — I'm not at all making fun of City Journal's Tal Fortgang or James Q. Wilson's Thinking About Crime, which remains instructive after five decades — and forms the backbone of Fortgang's new article. I'm making fun of the fact that our friends on the Left must be constantly reminded of this basic truth.

"Violent crime is overwhelmingly the work of a small group of repeat offenders," Fortgang reported, "that is, it is highly concentrated." But even I was shocked by just how concentrated it really is.

In New York City in 2022, just 327 people accounted for a third of all shoplifting, with more than 6,000 arrests between them. In Oakland, 0.1% of the population — that's 400 people — committed a majority of the city's homicides in recent years. "In 2014, data showed that three-quarters of state prisoners...had at least five prior arrests," Fortgang wrote. "Nearly 5 percent had 31 or more, a larger share than those imprisoned after just a single arrest. "

Fortgang concluded that "The case for an incapacitation-first approach to crime control follows directly from these indisputable facts."

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