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Message
September jobs report
Posted on 11/20/25 at 7:33 am
Posted on 11/20/25 at 7:33 am
Finally we get Sept numbers this morn.
Numbers came in-
Non farm +119,000 up best since April. Est was +227k
Rate is up 4.4% up from 4.3% month before. Oct 21 was 5%.
62.4% participation rate. Very good
Wages up 3.8%
Hours worked 34.2.
Overall pretty good report
Market seems to be taking it as such. Seems the market cares more about Nvidia
December Rate cut ? Eh… not much data to back that up.
Numbers came in-
Non farm +119,000 up best since April. Est was +227k
Rate is up 4.4% up from 4.3% month before. Oct 21 was 5%.
62.4% participation rate. Very good
Wages up 3.8%
Hours worked 34.2.
Overall pretty good report
Market seems to be taking it as such. Seems the market cares more about Nvidia
December Rate cut ? Eh… not much data to back that up.
This post was edited on 11/20/25 at 7:37 am
3
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:30 am to SlidellCajun
This is confusing.
Unemployment up but payrolls also up.
Unemployment up but payrolls also up.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:36 am to SlidellCajun
I am starting to think that there's too much latency in the data for The Fed to actually make timely decisions.....either that or the data magically supports the predetermined monetary policy that was decided based on criteria that we are not alerted to (politics, currency war, etc.)
Unemployment is up slightly from 4.3 to 4.4%. But everything else seems positive. I am not sure what to think here. There's been some massive industrial expansions announced recently but also announcements of significant layoffs. Depends on the sector.
Last month they revised the Sept 2024-March 2025 numbers downward by nearly 1 million. Is it wrong to not trust this data when it requires massive revisions like that?
quote:
December Rate cut ? Eh… not much data to back that up.
Unemployment is up slightly from 4.3 to 4.4%. But everything else seems positive. I am not sure what to think here. There's been some massive industrial expansions announced recently but also announcements of significant layoffs. Depends on the sector.
Last month they revised the Sept 2024-March 2025 numbers downward by nearly 1 million. Is it wrong to not trust this data when it requires massive revisions like that?
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:54 am to dewster
quote:quote:
December Rate cut ? Eh… not much data to back that up.
Unemployment is up slightly from 4.3 to 4.4%. But everything else seems positive. I am not sure what to think here.
I think it depends on what inflation is.
quote:
There's been some massive industrial expansions announced recently but also announcements of significant layoffs. Depends on the sector.
There is always announcements. Apple announces a $50M, $100M, $150M production facility each time there is a new president elected. Never as much as a dime is spent on it. Until a facility is opened, announcements mean little.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 10:14 am to dewster
quote:
There's been some massive industrial expansions announced recently but also announcements of significant layoffs.
I work in the industrial market. There is no such talk of massive projects or major expansions etc that I know of. There are few projects out there, but very few. Most of my customers are currently cutting costs wherever they can. Preventative maintenance has moved from real preventative maintenance to don't fix it unless it's broke and shuts down the plant.
We actually had one customer ask if we could do an 21-day outage on straight time. But when I look at the 52 week highs of my major customers compared to their current stock price, well, they have lost about 30-50% of their value over the last year.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 10:18 am to SlidellCajun
Wages still outpacing inflation.
Thank you Trump.
Thank you Trump.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 10:22 am to Suntiger
quote:
There is always announcements. Apple announces a $50M, $100M, $150M production facility each time there is a new president elected. Never as much as a dime is spent on it. Until a facility is opened, announcements mean little.
Apple has started to build their 250,000 sq ft plant in Houston.
What you talkin about willis? Maybe apple was a bad example.
Also expanding a facility in Kentucky that makes the glass screens for the iphone.
quote:
Specialty glass maker Corning Inc. said Friday it plans to triple production capacity at its plant in Harrodsburg and increase the workforce there by 50%, deepening its relationship with Apple.
Apple has put its vast financial muscle behind the project, announcing recently it was making a $2.5 billion commitment to enable Corning to produce all the cover glass for the iPhone and Apple Watch at Corning’s plant in Harrodsburg, a central Kentucky town of more than 9,000 residents.
quote:
“Thanks to the power of American manufacturing, any customer anywhere in the world who buys a new iPhone or Apple Watch will be holding precision glass made right here in Kentucky,” he said.
Trump doing more for Kentucky than Masshole.
This post was edited on 11/20/25 at 10:28 am
Posted on 11/20/25 at 11:07 am to dgnx6
Wasn't the scorekeeper fired for keeping....score?
I trust little of these numbers
Hope for the best but fear the worst
I trust little of these numbers
Hope for the best but fear the worst
Posted on 11/20/25 at 3:35 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Wages still outpacing inflation.
Yeah but it won’t give the fed any ammo for a rate drop
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