Severe weather thread 5/6: It's Texas's turn

quote:

---

Dire Wolf

---

quote:

---

From the most recent Mesoscale discussion from SPC (seen above) - Mesoscale Discussion 0715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Central to East-Central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 231... Valid 061550Z - 061715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 231 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase late this morning into the early afternoon across parts of central and east-central Texas. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection has resulted in increasing instability along the warm front in central/east-central Texas with low 70s dewpoints now present across this region. Cloud cover has limited heating thus far, but some breaks in the clouds have become apparent and should allow for heating into the early afternoon. A mature supercell already exists along this frontal zone in Bell County, Texas. Expect this cell to continue east along the front with an increasing tornado threat through the afternoon. Additional development has already started to the southwest with some hints of additional development farther east along the front. By later this afternoon, expect several supercells along and south of the warm front with a primary threat for large hail and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). The primary limiting factor based on 12Z forecast soundings was moist/neutral lapse rates in the low levels. However, at least some heating is already apparent south of the front which could result in low 80s temperatures and more favorable low-level lapse rates. Therefore, concern is increasing for an evolving tornado threat across east-central Texas. ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30969806 31369711 31399570 31279530 30919512 30159504 29589507 29479653 29549797 29559828 29659858 29849859 30969806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

---