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Started By
Message
The late money is coming in Trump - up 5% today on Polymarket
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:20 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:20 am
From 56% to 61% in the past few hours.
3
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:48 am to StansberryRules
It seems like it goes up every time I refresh the page.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:50 am to Rebel
Ann Selzer polled Polymarket users and Harris won 55% - 52%.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:02 am to StansberryRules
There was $5 million bet for Trump. This has probably moved/changed the line a little.
The line is also moved by all the Trump supporters that believe he can’t lose. They think it is sure money
Democrats know there is no sure thing and will always be nervous after 2016
The line is also moved by all the Trump supporters that believe he can’t lose. They think it is sure money
Democrats know there is no sure thing and will always be nervous after 2016
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:50 am to Rebel
There are going to be wild swings today, the states that do live returns will drive it and then the first smattering of returns after polls close will also drive it.
There will be panic selling by whichever side thinks they see doom to try to recoup whatever money they can.
So just be ready for a rollercoaster on there for a few hours while even tiny bits of info drive wild swings.
There will be panic selling by whichever side thinks they see doom to try to recoup whatever money they can.
So just be ready for a rollercoaster on there for a few hours while even tiny bits of info drive wild swings.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 2:53 am to StansberryRules
Bet in independents - RFk got out the vote.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:50 am to Canada_Baw
It's up to 63.1 now.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 3:55 am to Rebel
That's quite an interesting site. I'm guessing most of the comments are not Americans.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:08 am to timdonaghyswhistle
I don't know how much of an accurate barometer it will be for tonight's election, but it's interesting to watch.
I see 538's prediction machine shows Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%. Trump was up most of the week at around 54%.
It's going to be a long day and longer night.
I see 538's prediction machine shows Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%. Trump was up most of the week at around 54%.
It's going to be a long day and longer night.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:15 am to Rebel
Their -150 is a little Trumpier than most of the offshore books taking large bets, but they still show Trump anywhere from -120 to -140.
I don't remember where I read this today and have no idea if it's accurate, but supposedly at the English books that take action on American elections, only two betting underdogs the day of the election have won: Trump in 2016 and Truman in 1948.
edit: just checked a few offshore books current odds and they are actually very much in line with what polymarket has, averaging around -150.
I don't remember where I read this today and have no idea if it's accurate, but supposedly at the English books that take action on American elections, only two betting underdogs the day of the election have won: Trump in 2016 and Truman in 1948.
edit: just checked a few offshore books current odds and they are actually very much in line with what polymarket has, averaging around -150.
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 4:27 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 4:42 am to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
That's quite an interesting site. I'm guessing most of the comments are not Americans.
It's all crypto based and right now they don't "officially" accept Americans, but there were some recent legal rulings that were in there favor, it will be open to American soon.
But it's trivially easy to use the service currently as an American, you just use a VPN. They only check the IP of origin and since it's all crypto there are no payment processors to go through.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:21 am to StansberryRules
What did the betting markets have on voting eve 2020?
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:21 am to SlidellCajun
Biden up a good bit I do believe
Posted on 11/5/24 at 5:22 am to MizzouBS
quote:
MizzouBS
keep trying to justify the momentum shifting yet again as i no big deal. Your time is short now. Enjoy it.
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