re: PGA Championship ...Xander beats Bryson by 1 stroke

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Xander tends to choke

His competition is rory, scheff and koepka

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I don't think I'd toss Morikawa aside so easily.

Not the absolute best course fit by the data, but he's a two-time major champion who has a history of playing well at Nicklaus courses. Harding Park also played pretty similarly to what Valhalla will play like this week, and he is coming off a nice finish at the Masters.

Not sure I'd toss Theegala so easily aside, either. Dude has kinda quietly become a top 15-ish player in the world, and this place suits him very well; he's going to start winning big tournaments at some point, might as well be here. Also still like Bryson.

I'd put the odds of the winner coming out of that group of 7 - Xander, Rory, Scottie, Brooks, Morikawa, Bryson, Theegala - at about 80 - 85%.