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Started By
Message
re: 5/6 Oklahoma/Kansas severe weather - High Risk- PDS Tor Watch
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:26 pm to LSUGrrrl
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:26 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
I don’t mean apples to apples. I mean from a probability standpoint.
They're both High Risk, so you have that. Duration of the most threatening supercell storms and how the setup should play out is entirely different. Shear was much higher on 4/27. There was enough CIN and the shear vector across a large geographical area was perfect so that it squashed any chance of those storms on 4/27 lining out. We don't have that with this setup. The window for discrete supercells is smaller than 4/27, these storms should line out tonight and could become a significant wind event as the line moves east into the night. The window where we will likely see discrete supercells fire has a very high ceiling.
1
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:30 pm to LegendInMyMind
Thought the graphic a couple pages back said they wouldn’t line out at least in OK.
1045am - we just did a briefing for close to 400 of our emergency management and television
partners. We thought it would be good to share some of the key point we discussed with them. - DO NOT FOCUS ON THE RISK CATEGORIES! It does not matter what category, color or number area you are in today. EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes
and destructive hail. - Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near
you, assume it's a dangerous storm. - We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do
not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster.
- The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after
dark. This is important!
- Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity.
- The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today. - The timing graphic has our best analysis of when we think severe storms are most likely in your area. Please use this as a tool to help you make decisions about closings, cancellations, etc. Call us if you need more specific guidance. REMEMBER - many locations won't see a storm, but if you do,
it will be bad. IMPORTANT! please check the weather before you get in your vehicle this afternoon to leave work
or school. If there are storms nearby, consider delaying your trip!
Watch for further updates through the day.
1045am - we just did a briefing for close to 400 of our emergency management and television
partners. We thought it would be good to share some of the key point we discussed with them. - DO NOT FOCUS ON THE RISK CATEGORIES! It does not matter what category, color or number area you are in today. EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes
and destructive hail. - Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near
you, assume it's a dangerous storm. - We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do
not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster.
- The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after
dark. This is important!
- Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity.
- The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today. - The timing graphic has our best analysis of when we think severe storms are most likely in your area. Please use this as a tool to help you make decisions about closings, cancellations, etc. Call us if you need more specific guidance. REMEMBER - many locations won't see a storm, but if you do,
it will be bad. IMPORTANT! please check the weather before you get in your vehicle this afternoon to leave work
or school. If there are storms nearby, consider delaying your trip!
Watch for further updates through the day.
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