re: How long is Paul Skenes arm going to hold up?

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He will have TJ before age 27 or so like pretty much every other young pitcher these days. It is a fixed variable when valuing young pitching

He will likely still be a beast after it also

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Big difference with Skenes is his usage isn't nearly as high as most pitchers. People forget he was a catcher and didn't throw a lot of innings as a pitcher until last year. He wasn't even a starting pitcher until his second year at Air Force and didn't start pitching at all in high school until his sophomore year but only made 2 appearances. He was then a relief pitcher, largely, his junior year of high school. His senior season of high school was cancelled due to COVID. His freshman season at Air Force he only threw 26 innings and his sophomore season 85 innings. So his arm doesn't have nearly as much mileage as most pitchers in pro or even college ball.

Not saying TJ is out of the question seeing the prevalence these days, but I'd say his risk factor is probably lower than most.