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re: Trump's previous substantial lead in RCP polling is now negligible
Posted on 4/17/24 at 10:49 am to GumboPot
Posted on 4/17/24 at 10:49 am to GumboPot
quote:
Trump was -7.2 going into the 2020 election versus Biden. The level of cheating for Biden in 2020 was off the charts and Biden still barely won.
Trump was -3.2 going into 2016 election versus Hillary. Trump won handedly.
These two statements contradict each other. Trump was able to thread the electoral college needle and beat Hillary in 2016 by about 75,000 total votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Electoral score was Trump 304 Hillary 227.
In 2020 Biden was able to beat Trump by about 90,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Biden didn't even need Georgia or Arizona or Nevada)
Electoral score was Biden 306 Trump 232.
So, if Trump won handedly in 2016 then Biden won handedly in 2020. Can't have it any other way.
Posted on 4/17/24 at 10:55 am to ronricks
You are melting down
Would Christie have beaten JB?
Would Christie have beaten JB?
Posted on 4/17/24 at 10:58 am to ronricks
quote:
These two statements contradict each other.
They are historical independent events at specific times. They don't contradict each other.
quote:
n 2020 Biden was able to beat Trump by about 90,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Biden didn't even need Georgia or Arizona or Nevada)
Electoral score was Biden 306 Trump 232.
In 2020, Trump lost GA, AZ and WI by ~42,500 votes. If those three states were in Trump's column there would have been a 269 tie.
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