re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+

quote:

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So if you're the fed do you keep pushing at the risk of going overboard and causing a huge crisis, or do you start to lower rates for some shorter term relief and hope everything else catches up?

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I don't think that's really the choices. I think it's more "do you keep pushing at the risk of going overboard and causing a huge crisis or do you start to lower rates and bring back even higher inflation?"

You don't lower rates in a strong GDP scenario. Regardless of the foundation, GDP is still expanding at a brisk pace. Lowering rates in that scenario adds more liquidity to the economy, thus driving up inflation (which is already starting to sneak back up because rates weren't brought up enough).

There's no way to get out of this economic calamity without significant pain (thus why a "soft landing" was more wishful thinking than achievable reality), it's just a matter of determining which vector the pain comes from, how much of it there will be and how long it will last.