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Started By
Message
re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:16 am to Art Blakey
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:16 am to Art Blakey
quote:
I doubt it. Run the numbers on US Govt interest expense. They're hooped. Powell's hands are tied. He gets to decide how he's going to lose the long end but he's losing the long end either way. Permanent SLR exemption for banks is coming but it's just a stopover on the way to yield curve control, monetization and face ripping inflation.
I don't disagree as to Powell's hands being tied, I just think that how he's handled this thus far he's more likely to understand that the results of raising rates are going to be "less worse" than continuing to try to thread the eye of the needle.
Already we're hearing talks about the possibility of no cuts this year (this after going from 3 cuts around the beginning fo the year to 2, now talk is bouncing between one and none/continued-pause). Within 2 months (if inflation continues to creep up) we'll likely be hearing talk of possible rate hikes and cuts for this year being completely off the table.
2
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:21 am to Bard
Motor Vechicle and shelter were the factors for this high report. Motor Vechicle made up the biggest portion
Otherwise we were poised for a big positive reaction
Just incredbile
Otherwise we were poised for a big positive reaction
Just incredbile
Posted on 4/10/24 at 12:25 pm to Bard
quote:
I don't disagree as to Powell's hands being tied, I just think that how he's handled this thus far he's more likely to understand that the results of raising rates are going to be "less worse" than continuing to try to thread the eye of the needle. Already we're hearing talks about the possibility of no cuts this year (this after going from 3 cuts around the beginning fo the year to 2, now talk is bouncing between one and none/continued-pause). Within 2 months (if inflation continues to creep up) we'll likely be hearing talk of possible rate hikes and cuts for this year being completely off the table.
Pretty bad 10 yr auction just now, on a sh1tty day for yields, after a bad 3yr (freaking 3, not 30) earlier this week. Imo the only way they can raise is with simultaneous QE. Janet probably begged the Chinese to start buying again and they’re not doing it. Dxy just spiked to 105 which will stimulate more foreign UST selling. They’re just completely wrecked. The fiscal train flattened the Fed.
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