re: Southern U.S. Severe Weather & Flooding: April 8-11, 2024

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I do wonder if SPC is being a bit too aggressive pulling the trigger on a moderate risk already.

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It is more of a forcing question. We have the high end wind probability due to the QLCS/MCS that will definitely be working it's way into the area tomorrow. That has high confidence. The main driver for the tornado threat is whether or not we will see storms develope ahead of that line, or will forccing be too strong and lead to a messier storm mode. If storms fire ahead of the main line they have a good environment to work in. That environment should be an open warm sector that hasn't been sapped with earlier storms and rain, with good moisture, strong shear, and decent CAPE.

A wind-driven Mod seems at least reasonable right now with strong tor probs being a little more conditional.

ETA: I'd keep an eye on any storms/rain development in the area today and overnight. That may limit tomorrow's ceiling, or give boundaries to worry with later on. Also, watch how CAMs handle the surface low and the shape of the trough. If that surface low deepens as it moves east and the trough can amplify and take on a negative tilt look, that'll increase the ceiling for tomorrow, I think.