re: Oil and gas folks please explain the whole oil /gas scarcity thing to me

OffshoreTechnologyFocus "In fact, the success rate for wildcat drilling is around 30%, with only one in three wells likely to make money, says Graeme Bagley, head of global exploration and appraisal at Westwood Global Energy" jan 29, 2020

Westwood Global Energy "The commercial success rate from high impact drilling in maturing/mature plays decreased from 36% in 2021 to 30% in 2022, with failed attempts to extend the pre-salt play in the Santos and Campos basins, failures in the South Caspian, and no success from the four high impact wells drilled in NW Europe." Jan 12, 2023

Energy Institute "The success rate of global conventional oil and gas exploration has declined in recent years, but the most painful blow has been to onshore wildcat wells, according to recent analysis from Rystad Energy. In 2020, the success rate of these drilled wildcats plummeted to an all-time-low of 10.6%, marking an annual decline for a fourth year in a row." 5-3-2021