Iran has lived in fear of that since 9/11... at that point, they were actually pretty isolated on the global stage. The Khomeini regime is not popular and there's been resistance and protests in the streets there since they took power in 1979 (the Revolution promised Democracy and self-determination, then pulled a "Lenin" instantly with "well... you are not fit to govern yourself, best we do it for you (in line with the Prophet's intentions)."

There's a bit of Cuba-like situation with an ex-pat Iranian community pushing for the Mullahs to be overthrown so they can return to reclaim things... there was actually "competition" between this community and the Iraqi version for "invade our country, you'll be welcomed as Liberators" in the early 00s, and Iraq won out for whatever reasons...

The turning point in any revolution comes when the military and police find themselves face-to-face with their neighbors, friends and relatives in the streets, and they turn... and that spreads up the command chain because nobody wants to be the one beaten to death by the mob, until the top brass either signal that they're stepping aside and letting the revolution reach its bloody conclusion (the leader/leaders killed if they haven't hauled butt out of dodge, already) or they claim solidarity with the people and stage a coup in their name, promising to prosecute the former rulers and institute reforms. The Khomeinis learned from the revolution that put them in power, and they've stayed in power by drafting "riot Police" from the rural areas, paying them 2 years their normal wages for herding sheep or whatever to put on a uniform for a few weeks and come beat or shoot protestors, who to them are strangers... urban people they hate, anyway, because they have a much higher standard of living and there are some tribal rivalries.

Iran is a powder keg, and the regime fears the US "helping" their population overthrow them, and that's why they've concentrated on funding allies in the region... Hamas, Hezbollah, The Houthis in Yemen, Assad in Syria, and forming stronger relations with the non-Democratic countries of the world, mainly Russia, China, and North Korea...

As much as the majority of their population would like to be rid of Khomenei and his Mullahs, as we learned in Iraq, things get weird when you're invading a country... and Iranians in particular do not trust the US because we engineered the return of Shah to power after he'd been Democratically deposed in the 1950s and the new government tried to nationalize the oil industry, which threw out the extremely favorable deal British Petroleum had set up for itself on promises to keep the Shah in power when the country was reconstituted with the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of WWI.

Something to keep an eye on is the emergence of "BRICS" as a counter to "G7," initially (pardon the pun) consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa... but expanding to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and possibly Saudi Arabia...

So that's some "strange bedfellows" in one organization, right? Iran + Egypt and Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

So what's the one thing all of those countries have in common?

Well, they say it is "the Global South being ignored by the North American/European powers," but it appears to be either non-Democratic rule or elements of Nationalist hostility and some questionable human rights activities (yes, even India... Hindu Supremism and the oppression of Muslims and other minority groups is a big problem there). No regime/government like that wants to be the last one standing...

This post was edited on 4/8/24 at 11:23 pm