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re: Did y'all catch Dave Ramsey rip George Kamel apart over withdrawing 4% from retirement?
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:57 am to finchmeister08
Posted on 4/3/24 at 7:57 am to finchmeister08
Dave Ramsey has always had really bad investment/retirement withdrawal rate advice.
He rails on the 4% rule where the math clearly shows why investment pros actually recommend that. I've seen him on calls before say you can withdraw 10% of your balance every year and you should be fine in retirement, forget the 8%. Basically he tries to make retiring on just $1M sound a lot better than it really is "you can take out $100k/yr with $1M in retirement accounts" etc...He also assumes you leave everything in aggressive growth stocks forever, never get more conservative in your portfolio.
Imagine giving that advice to someone who retired at the end of 2007 with $1M in S&P 500, "You can take out $100k a year". That person would have about $500k or close to it by the end of 2008 taking out $100k and losing 40% roughly of balance. So now they take out $100k from from a $500k balance the next year after?
Also his "well I get 12-13% annually on my portfolio" is utter horseshite if he follows his own investment advice which is 25% large/middle/small cap growth each and then 25% more in international. International has been utter crap for a long time now, there's no way a 25% even breakdown among those categories is giving you a 12-13% annual rate of return over the last decade or two. Moneyguy shows busted this up pretty bad before on Ramsey testing his hypothetical portfolio, where they even chose some of the best in his categories and came nowhere near a 12-13% annual rate of return.
He rails on the 4% rule where the math clearly shows why investment pros actually recommend that. I've seen him on calls before say you can withdraw 10% of your balance every year and you should be fine in retirement, forget the 8%. Basically he tries to make retiring on just $1M sound a lot better than it really is "you can take out $100k/yr with $1M in retirement accounts" etc...He also assumes you leave everything in aggressive growth stocks forever, never get more conservative in your portfolio.
Imagine giving that advice to someone who retired at the end of 2007 with $1M in S&P 500, "You can take out $100k a year". That person would have about $500k or close to it by the end of 2008 taking out $100k and losing 40% roughly of balance. So now they take out $100k from from a $500k balance the next year after?
Also his "well I get 12-13% annually on my portfolio" is utter horseshite if he follows his own investment advice which is 25% large/middle/small cap growth each and then 25% more in international. International has been utter crap for a long time now, there's no way a 25% even breakdown among those categories is giving you a 12-13% annual rate of return over the last decade or two. Moneyguy shows busted this up pretty bad before on Ramsey testing his hypothetical portfolio, where they even chose some of the best in his categories and came nowhere near a 12-13% annual rate of return.
This post was edited on 4/3/24 at 8:00 am
Posted on 4/3/24 at 8:03 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Also his "well I get 12-13% annually on my portfolio" is utter horseshite if he follows his own investment advice which is 25% large/middle/small cap growth each and then 25% more in international. International has been utter crap for a long time now, there's no way a 25% even breakdown among those categories is giving you a 12-13% annual rate of return over the last decade or two. Moneyguy shows busted this up pretty bad before on Ramsey testing his hypothetical portfolio, where they even chose some of the best in his categories and came nowhere near a 12-13% annual rate of return.
These magical investments are always the thing that kills any analysis of his investment advice.
We can all crate hypothetical scenarios of amazing ways to invest if we get to rely on magical unicorn investment outlets.
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