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re: What do people think about the market since Powell’s comments yesterday?
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:16 am to dualed
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:16 am to dualed
quote:
Says rate cuts will come this year but won’t say when.
He's trying to be optimistic but he understands the reality we're in.
There's still a glut of money in the economy, so inflation is remaining "sticky" above 3%. Consumers are still building up debt on high-interest credit cards and it's been going on so long that the average credit rating is starting to take a hit and delinquencies are seeing a steady rise while personal savings is slowly dwindling.
Unemployment has remained low and both job creation and GDP have remained strong.
None of those alone are favorables when looking at cutting rates, but taken together are a statement that rates shouldn't be cut any time soon.
CPI was driven down over the last 6 months in large part due to the drop in the price of oil. That's slowly ticking back up as is the price at the pump and the price of gasoline is likely to remain higher due to various factors (blends, no SPR offset, etc).
I don't expect inflation to dip below 3% for February nor for March. If that's the case then there's no way we get a cut before June. That means the economy would need to be in serious trouble for us to get 3 cuts in 6 months. The longer we go with inflation staying above 3%, the more likely it becomes we might see another hike before we see a cut.
quote:
Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.
You only "beat" inflation (at least, the way I see it) by having deflation and that means the economy is in the shitter (too much supply, not enough demand and that leads to more layoffs). Other than that, you are just assimilating to inflation.
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 11:35 am
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