re: Southeast Severe Weather: January 8-9, 2024

Interesting setup for southern LA tomorrow. The area looks to be pretty well socked in with rain and non-severe thunderstorms from late morning onward, until the front starts to push into the area. That greatly limits instability, especially in the lower levels, and the flow isn't strong enough at that point to drag the dews far enough inland to be a problem early. Dews stay sub-60° into the early evening. Meager low level lapse rates should also hinder any storms becoming severe early.

That said, things change a bit going into the night. The earlier activity pushes north of the area, and southerly flow increases. This does help to increase moisture and instability just prior to the front. That's noted in the SPC discussion as the most likely time period for supercells to form. Lapse rates improve, and there won't be a lack of shear. The opportunity for discrete cells should be brief, just a couple of hours after 7/8pm, as the front closes in. Then, the QLCS will blow through with a severe wind and embedded rotation risk.

Farther east, towards Mobile, should be a similar story. However, this is the type event that can cause that area problems. Everything likes to spin down there, so a tornado threat ahead of the front, and with the line, needs to be watched.