re: Deindustrialization - Have We Become a Poor Country?

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On September 18, 2023, the U.S. national debt crossed $33 trillion. It will reach $34 trillion in late December, a little over 90 days. It took the U.S. over 200 years to have national debt exceed $1 trillion. The national debt now exceeds gross domestic production by 122%. The U.S. government’s 2023 expenditure ratio is 23% of GDP, creating an economy dependent on money printing. The last time the government had a surplus was in 2001, and the last time it paid down treasury debt was in 1961. The runaway high deficits are due to the U.S.’s exorbitant privilege of treasuries being the primary global reserve asset.

The net present value of U.S. contingent liabilities (future obligations) is $79.5 trillion for social security, Medicare, and government pensions. When adjusting outstanding debt for contingent liabilities, treasury obligations exceed 400% of GDP. England is the only country that has successfully overcome a GDP of over 200% caused by the Napoleonic wars. England’s industrial revolution mechanized transportation, industry, and agriculture, created an unprecedented economic boom. Sorry, technophiles and speculators, Artificial Intelligence won’t repeat a similar outcome.

The bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the deficit will increase by $25 trillion over the next ten fiscal years. Total debt would be a whopping $59 trillion. This estimate assumes there is no recession or a depression. Tax rate increases to solve deficits won’t work since they strain businesses and taxpayers, who are already overleveraged and facing high interest rates and sticky inflation costs. Increases would trigger a deep recession, causing tax revenues to plummet, compounding the deficits.

Over the past two decades, U.S. debt growth is no longer linear; it has taken on exponential growth, creating a destructive data pattern shaped like a hockey stick. Dr. Chris Martenson, founder of Peak Posterity, demonstrates the impact of exponential growth in the following four-minute video to understand the phenomenon best.

Interest expense is anticipated to exceed $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal budget, adding to the mountain of $7.6 trillion in treasuries maturing at much higher rates within a year. Deficit funding could soar over $3 trillion in 2024.

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