re: Election Day Thread

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The banner race on Tuesday is probably Kentucky’s governor election, where incumbent Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear faces GOP challenger Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Cameron, who is backed strongly by former President Donald Trump, trailed Beshear significantly all year. Even as recently as earlier in October, he was down well into double digits, but polling released late last week suggests the race tightened considerably in the past few weeks. An Emerson College survey released in early October showed Beshear leading Cameron by 16 percent, but another survey from the same pollster conducted at the end of October and released on Friday last week showed Cameron holding a slight edge over Beshear when leaners are included and the two of them tied in the straight-up ballot test — a swing of 16 or 17 percent Cameron’s way in just a few weeks.


(Instagram/Daniel Cameron)

A Cameron win, which seemed like a long shot earlier in the fall, would be an electric jolt for Republicans heading into 2024 as it would mean, combined with Louisiana Governor-elect Jeff Landry’s stunning victory without a runoff a few weeks ago, that the GOP flipped both governor’s mansions it had a shot at this year from Democrat hands to Republican hands. Cameron said as much himself on Breitbart News Saturday on SiriusXM 125 the Patriot Channel this weekend, arguing that a win for him would “help propel Donald Trump into the White House.”

The second biggest race of the day is Mississippi’s governor’s election, in which incumbent GOP Gov. Tate Reeves faces off against stronger-than-expected Democrat challenger Brandon Presley. If Reeves hangs on and Cameron wins, Republicans will be jubilantly galloping into 2024, the victors of the three big races of the year. But if Democrats take either or both of these, the left and establishment media will almost certainly play up those victories as major setbacks for the GOP heading into 2024 — and perhaps begin to force aside questions about incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden’s vulnerabilities in the wake of a series of recent brutal polls.

Voters in Virginia and New Jersey will also decide the future of their states, with many eyes on the Old Dominion state given its suburban nature and history as a possible bellwether. Just two years ago, now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin — a Republican — trounced former Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe in the governor election. Republicans now have a chance to take control of both chambers of Virginia’s legislature — but so do Democrats. Republicans face an even more uphill battle in New Jersey, but some races there could provide signs for what is to come. As for how much impact these 2023 Virginia and New Jersey results have on 2024, that remains to be seen.

Elsewhere in the country, voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania will vote on an abortion ballot measure and on a state Supreme Court Justice seat respectively. The Issue 1 vote in Ohio could test how strong the Democrats’ national message on abortion plays in an increasingly red state, whereas the Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat could change the outcome of some possible cases that could determine how the 2024 election is administered in the Keystone State even though it will not determine majority control there.

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