That would be betting against history. The watches that aren't highly exclusive that tend to have the most appreciation are the oddballs that nobody wanted when they were available. Look at the manual wind Daytonas, stores could barely give them away when they were being made.

While I don't think any of the modern Tudors (post 2012 US reintroduction) are going to see significant appreciation any time soon ones to consider IMO would be:

The first 41mm Black Bays with ETA movements. The were discontinued fairly quickly (especially the blue) and they have visually different dials which collectors prefer over other differentiators. The Tudor rose and smiley face text are preferred by most in a vacuum. The proportion of in-house compared to ETA grows every day.

The Black Bay P01, they discontinued it because it didn't sell well but I bet one day it will become coveted after someone puts out a retrospective piece on it and fuels demand like Hodinkee did with the Speedmaster Mk40 and John Mayer about every third time he opens his mouth re watches.

I would have said the BB Harrods edition when you had to pick them up in person in London but now they will just mail you one.

My point is don't discount the oddballs as they are the ones that when people decide they want them the supply is small. That being said there are only a small number of modern watches that have any chance of a large appreciation over time IMO. Some are hot for a while but sooner or later the model is updated, the pent-up demand is sated and/or people just move onto the next thing.

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Posted by zippyputt

Member since Jul 2005

5819 posts

Posted on 11/6/23 at 7:32 am to Obtuse1

I agree to some extent on the “oddball” things being scarce and valuable later, …..sometimes. You just never know. Kind of like going to the casino. My thought has always been buy what you like and what you can afford. If it appreciates fantastic. If not, you have something you like regardless.