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re: Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 8:43 am to HubbaBubba
Posted on 10/31/23 at 8:43 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky
They are also "drafting" females now. This entire proxy war has been a very bad mistake since the beginning. The reason Putin hasn't marched further into Ukraine is because he doesn't want it. If he did, it would be under Russia control.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 8:51 am to lake chuck fan
quote:
The reason Putin hasn't marched further into Ukraine is because he doesn't want it. If he did, it would be under Russia control.
The reason is he's fighting a modern war with Cold War weaponry. Russia isn't the bear we thought they were. They are a cub with nukes.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 12:26 pm to lake chuck fan
quote:
The reason Putin hasn't marched further into Ukraine is because he doesn't want it. If he did, it would be under Russia control.
While I would agree that Russia's war aims were most probably much narrower than occupying all of Ukraine, I think the real reason they are not advancing is because this war has turned to the advantage of the defender. Both sides have struggled mightily to advance. Drones have drastically changed the information battle and attackers have almost no surprise and are finding it impossible to avoid detection. Coupling this with the Russian artillery advantage and the fact that they are entrenched on enemy territory and not the reverse, the Russians are content to bleed the Ukrainians out by digging in and playing the long game. The attackers are taking high losses whether it is Russia or Ukraine on the offensive. Ukrainian manpower, morale, international support, etc is not positioned well to win a protracted war.
In short, the Russians were absolutely stunned early on in this war and they certainly appeared to expect to advance deeply and quickly into Ukraine. They appear now to have correctly assessed that with the Western military equipment provided their offensive capabilities are greatly limited and they have pivoted to the defense. This strategy has worked as the Ukrainians have hurled themselves at the Russian lines and suffered tremendous losses for very minimal gains. If the Ukrainians continue at this rate they may weaken such that the opportunity for successful Russian offensive operations reemerges, but the Russians have time on their side and conditions working in their favor to stay on the defensive and allow the Ukrainians to bleed themselves white.
If the opportunity presents itself however, the Russians will absolutely launch offensives deeper into Ukraine to end the war. They are not standing where they are simply because they don't want any further territory. If the Ukrainians do not seek some sort of agreement now, they certainly could find themselves with zero negotiating power later and having the entire state fall into Russian hands.
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