re: Does the Dow finish the year above or below 30k?

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Caught some downvoted for saying a move of 2800 points down in 60 days does not mean something “very bad” has happened.

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That's a strong over-generalization.

It's all about context. The context isn't just any period, it's Q4 and Q4 is normally a strongly positive period for the Dow. The average move from October 1 - January 1 going back to 1992 is around 3.356967%. During that entire period, there have been only 2 years where the Dow dropped over the course of Q4 8% or more, those were 2007 and 2008 (-10% & -12%, respectively).

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Meanwhile, the DJIA is up 2500 points in 3 weeks since this thread was started. Has something “very good” happened?

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Again, context. If we're going off post-COVID numbers, then it's a little under average (the average increase for Q4 post-COVID is 3,797.62), but we're only about halfway through the quarter (caveat: 2020 really skewed things). If we're going with pre-COVID numbers then it's well above average (535.2039). It's even well above average for the entire period (605.9139) as well as the average of all Q4s going back to 2012 (942.7).

Within that context of the history of Dow movement in Q4, yes a drop of 2,500-2,800 points over the quarter would be far more likely to indicate something bad is happening (or about to happen) than not.

Does it mean something "very good" is happening? Again, context. What are we seeing with CPI, wages, consumer debt, PPI, Unemployment, etc trends?