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re: LSU defense has played three horrible games against experienced veteran QBs
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:47 pm to Phillytiger9
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:47 pm to Phillytiger9
Mizzu and Mississippi were the best offenses you face all year. People don't realize that when they blast the defense.
3
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:50 pm to Islandboy777
quote:
Mizzu and Mississippi were the best offenses you face all year.
And FSU...
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:05 pm to Islandboy777
quote:
Mizzu and Mississippi were the best offenses you face all year. People don't realize that when they blast the defense.
That's true. But those teams absolutely torched LSU where they did not as much against other reasonably comparable teams. LSU is a BAD defense. They just had the fortune of playing two bottom 25% offenses over the last two weeks.
Is it possible that LSU has gotten a little bit better since that stretch beginning with the 2nd half vs. Arkansas through the first half vs. Mizzou? Sure. But to think there has been tremendous improvement is probably unrealistic.
This game is going to come down to whose strength is better than the opponent's strength, and whose weakness is worse than the opponent's weakness? Alabama is a top 15 defense. Will they completely shut down LSU? Probably not. Can they hold LSU to under 35? Maybe, considering they've only allowed one opponent to score over 30 all season (Texas)
On the flip-side, can LSU hold Alabama under 30? Maybe considering Arkansas, Ole Miss and South Florida have.
For me, I think the number LSU has to hit to have a really good shot at winning is 38. Even against LSU's crappy defense I think LSU can do just enough to hold Alabama under that number. If they can't, that will be the final nail in a wasted season for LSU. One where they will have wasted an offense that has come as close to matching 2019 as anyone could have ever reasonably hoped for.
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:26 pm to Islandboy777
Current SP+ rankings (Off/Def):
FSU (12th/17th) - gave up 45, scored 24
Miss St (45th/60th) - gave up 15, scored 41
Arkansas (53rd/49th) - gave up 31, scored 34
Ole Miss (17th/34th) - gave up 55, scored 49
Mizzou (18th/22nd) - gave up 39, scored 49
Auburn (59th/44th) - gave up 18, scored 48
Army (116th/92) - gave up 0, scored 62
Alabama (15th/4th) - better offense than both Mizzou and Ole Miss per this metric.
Yes Milroe doesn't look like the best QB, but their offense has gotten better as a whole and their defense is great. Their style of offense might be a better matchup for LSU's D because the QB isn't your typical accurate pocket passer, but they run the ball well and Milroe is usually throwing to wide open receivers, which is why he has put up decent numbers.
If LSU can do decent against the run, force Milroe into tight-ish throwing windows (avoid busted coverages), and prevent him from scrambling too much, then they have a good shot at getting some stops. I do think LSU has gotten slightly better on defense from a tackling and awareness perspective, but they simply lack talent and experience in key positions. The pass rush and secondary is weak, which is a bad combo for getting off the field on 3rd down.
I do think LSU will be stopped on offense more than people are expecting since Bama is easily the best D they will face all year and Saban has two weeks to prepare, but we have great weapons at every position similar to 2019. Staying ahead of schedule on 1st and 2nd down will be key.
Hopeful outcome - 38-34 Tigers
FSU (12th/17th) - gave up 45, scored 24
Miss St (45th/60th) - gave up 15, scored 41
Arkansas (53rd/49th) - gave up 31, scored 34
Ole Miss (17th/34th) - gave up 55, scored 49
Mizzou (18th/22nd) - gave up 39, scored 49
Auburn (59th/44th) - gave up 18, scored 48
Army (116th/92) - gave up 0, scored 62
Alabama (15th/4th) - better offense than both Mizzou and Ole Miss per this metric.
Yes Milroe doesn't look like the best QB, but their offense has gotten better as a whole and their defense is great. Their style of offense might be a better matchup for LSU's D because the QB isn't your typical accurate pocket passer, but they run the ball well and Milroe is usually throwing to wide open receivers, which is why he has put up decent numbers.
If LSU can do decent against the run, force Milroe into tight-ish throwing windows (avoid busted coverages), and prevent him from scrambling too much, then they have a good shot at getting some stops. I do think LSU has gotten slightly better on defense from a tackling and awareness perspective, but they simply lack talent and experience in key positions. The pass rush and secondary is weak, which is a bad combo for getting off the field on 3rd down.
I do think LSU will be stopped on offense more than people are expecting since Bama is easily the best D they will face all year and Saban has two weeks to prepare, but we have great weapons at every position similar to 2019. Staying ahead of schedule on 1st and 2nd down will be key.
Hopeful outcome - 38-34 Tigers
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