re: What do you think will be the "canary in the coal mine" for a recession?

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What specific indicator do you think will foretell a real recession?

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I don't think you can look at one specific indicator in our current scenario, you have to take it all in.

Credit card debt, delinquencies and interest rates all climbing at the same time are a bad sign (with credit card debt being at a historic high and interest rates being near there as well), but not an entire picture. Along with that we've had inflation continuing to rise while steadily beating wage growth. Inflation has been especially sticky in the necessities of energy, food and shelter while wages have been outpaced.

This puts the Fed in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" position where if they raise rates they risk more businesses failing but if they cut rates they risk creating more inflation (possibly even a hyperinflation event).

All taken together, this looks like a massive consumer credit bubble. If/When it pops, I don't see an avenue for it to not lead to a recession.