re: Will the S&P finish the year

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It all depends on when the recession kicks in

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I'm not convinced a recession even matters at this point. that is kind of what the market wants and has expected to get back to lower rates.

I think a fundamental shift is underway to understanding the economy resilience and we are truly headed for higher for longer rates. there's no going back to 2.5% or 3%. the deleveraging alone will bring equities to lower valuations. currently, the 2024E S&P p/e is ~17.5. 16.5 gets the S&P to 4050, but if a shift is underway, what is that forward multiple the market will be willing to pay under the higher for longer/lower economic growth regime?

covid stimulus pulled forward 5-8 years of growth and it's perfectly reasonable for mean reversion to happen. everyone knows that growth was unsustainable.