re: Severe Weather Thread 6/18

SPC has just introduced a 10% tornado risk with a hatched area for much of central MS into west-central AL for tonight into the early AM.



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, a few
tornadoes will remain possible tonight across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southeast.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast States...
Severe thunderstorm potential will continue tonight with early
evening observed soundings continuing to sample seasonally strong
westerlies aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. The most focused
tornado risk, including the potential for a strong tornado, appears
to be semi-focused across central/northern Mississippi, and perhaps
into western Alabama as air mass recovery and warm/moist advection
continues to occur. This scenario is highlighted by the 00z observed
sounding from Jackson MS with featured nearly 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, 45
kt effective shear, 200+ 0-1 km SRH and 400+ 0-3km SRH. Additional
strengthening of 1-3 km AGL winds is likely through
mid/late-evening, which should further heighten the tornado risk.