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Message
re: 2016 Election Swing
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:10 pm to tigertownnashh
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:10 pm to tigertownnashh
quote:
I wasn’t old enough to vote in that election but my question is genuinely what happened?
Trump got lucky, put simply.
The RCP average before the election was HRC +3.2; actual results was HRC +2.1...well within the margin of error.
LINK
He happened to win the key states by a combined 70K or 100K votes or some shite like that against a historically hated opponent and MAGA interpreted this victory as some kind of watershed event when in fact most normal people saw that both candidates sucked - it's just that Trump sucked a little less than HRC.
1
Posted on 6/4/23 at 2:22 pm to Message Board User
quote:
The RCP average before the election was HRC +3.2; actual results was HRC +2.1...well within the margin of error.
This is another good point. Margin of Error tends to be around 3%. It may be nice when a candidate is up 2-3 points in a poll but that could be meaningless because it could swing the other way to them being down by 1 point or being tied.
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