re: Dennis Allen >>> Sean Payton when it comes to the draft

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Player with ambiguous future success at a position of need has a higher percentage chance of contributing to team than a player with ambiguous success at a position not in need or at a position that isn't in our scheme.

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Based on what?

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The only argument is if scouting is a complete crapshoot or not.

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And this argument applies to either BPA or need-based drafting.

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If I'm going to pick someone out of scheme

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They won't be BPA, then. They probably won't (shouldn't?) even be on your board to be considered for either method

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or a position I don't need.

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Again, this is the NFL. Every position is one of need. Injuries are common and walls are hit annually.

Even with singular positions that don't rotate, like QB, not only is depth important, but the potential to trade that player for more capital than you used to acquire him is +EV. Remember when people thought the Redskins were insane for drafting Cousins and RG3? Or you can look at more outlier scenarios like Brady-Bledsoe, Wilson-Flynn, Trey Lance-Brock Purdy, etc.

This is the NFL. No position is safe and no player is a guarantee to be productive in 1-2 years.