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re: Hurricane Season - Unnamed Gulf Low Moving Inland - CSU Less Active Than Normal Season

Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:39 pm to
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
27137 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

They always forecast a hyperactive season. Always

That's the default forecast in a warming climate. Even NOAA "sanity checks" for the three-month stretches July-August-September and August-September-October (peak hurricane activity) suggest much greater chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Gulf South and East Coast states. Seems to be ideal conditions for big tropical storms to form; in recent years in August and September the water temp in the Central Gulf of Mexico has averaged 90 degrees F, and hurricanes that have formed then have become monstrous in intensity.

Something unusual must be in play this year for CSU to go bearish on its forecast. I know last year it was record heat and drought on the other side of the Atlantic, and constant rivers of haboobs from the Sahara that held tropical storms at bay until September.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
122425 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

That's the default forecast in a warming climate


Or the default forecast when you want attention/more fed money for research

You arent gonna get research money if you say everything is normal.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
13568 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

tarzana


wish you'd stay out of these.

what you copy and paste those sentences out of?
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 12:45 pm
Posted by dukesilver72
Texas
Member since Feb 2015
943 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

That's the default forecast in a warming climate. Even NOAA "sanity checks" for the three-month stretches July-August-September and August-September-October (peak hurricane activity) suggest much greater chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Gulf South and East Coast states. Seems to be ideal conditions for big tropical storms to form; in recent years in August and September the water temp in the Central Gulf of Mexico has averaged 90 degrees F, and hurricanes that have formed then have become monstrous in intensity.
Yea, i mean look how bad the storms are now according to A.C.E. Oh, wait.

1933 - 258.57
2005 - 250.13
1893 - 231.15
1926 - 229.56
1995 - 227.10
2004 - 226.88
2017 - 224.88
1950 - 211.28
1961 - 205.39
1998 - 181.76
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 12:57 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58408 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

tarzana

One day I am going to make you look like a fool more than you do yourself. I don't care enough, nor do I have the time today, but one day I will. I know that it won't register, as you are truly in a place that logic and facts cannot reach. Even a tongue-in-cheek joke, which my post clearly was (it was nothing more than a jab at the clowns who have that same response every single time an above average season is forecast) couldn't land in your little one tracked, hysterical mind.

So, keep spewing your garbage. Keep bringing the hysteria. Keep being an unapologetic moron. I'll be around and have the time and energy one day.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
92724 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 5:49 pm to


Not bad
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
92724 posts
Posted on 4/13/23 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Something unusual must be in play this year for CSU to go bearish on its forecast.


It’s called El Niño
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