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re: Will The Bank Fiasco Affect Mortgage Rates?
Posted on 3/14/23 at 11:08 am to Paul Allen
Posted on 3/14/23 at 11:08 am to Paul Allen
quote:
people still building houses in this current economic situation?
Yes when you check the FRED. Down but still well above 2008 thru 2018 starts - and not much lower than starts in 2007.
quote:
2023 900
2022 1,010
2021 1,127
2020 990
2019 888
2018 876
2017 849
2016 782
2015 715
2014 648
2013 618
2012 535
2011 431
2010 471
2009 445
2008 622
2007 1,046
2006 1,465
2005 1,716
2004 1,611
2003 1,499
2002 1,359
2001 1,273
The argument from the real estate industry is there must be an undersupply of homes but this argument amounts to "wishcasting" IMO because of what the FRED data on rate of home ownership (homes lived in by the person owning the mortgage or property outright) show.
2
Posted on 3/14/23 at 1:27 pm to molsusports
quote:
The argument from the real estate industry is there must be an undersupply of homes
There absolutely is. More so, inventory of quality inventory is lacking.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 2:07 pm to molsusports
quote:
The argument from the real estate industry is there must be an undersupply of homes but this argument amounts to "wishcasting" IMO because of what the FRED data on rate of home ownership (homes lived in by the person owning the mortgage or property outright) show.
There is.
The FRED data shows homeowner vacancy rate at an all time low of .8% for Q4 2022. LINK
Rental vacancy rate is at the lowest levels since pre-1985. LINK
This chart shows homeownership, homeowner vacancy and rental vacancy all on one graph. LINK
Starts are down, but vacancy rates are the lowest they've been in ~40 years. There is an undersupply. Of course housing is regional so it will look different depending on population migration.
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