re: US CPI data release today

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I was just trying to do this quickly on my phone, but by math, using the 60 year growth trend pre-covid, M2 would need to contract by about 5% by the end of the year to be on trend. I think a 15% contraction would probably set us in a deflationary recession, but I think 5% is a more reasonable contraction for a "soft landing," or at least a "softer" one.

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I was using the FRED chart and just extrapolating where we are from where we likely would have been if growth had remained constant (based on the graph).

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deflationary recession

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Considering how much inflation we've had over such a short period; I don't think we can get through this without some deflation.