- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Sports betting 1/26
Posted on 1/26/23 at 1:48 pm to BilJ
Posted on 1/26/23 at 1:48 pm to BilJ
BilJ - couple questions related to this sheet if you don't mind.
1. win prob% - is this Straight up or with spread?
2. if win prob% is with spread have you noticed / tracked any correlation of this to the blowout spread chance? ie higher win prob% the higher the blowout %? ex southern miss has 54% win prob and 5.8% blowout while abline christ has 51.2% win prob and 6.1% blowout. which stat holds higher value.
something i've started looking at more is team totals specifically games that have larger spread and higher % to the over on game total. ex: stetson is +13.5 with a 55.6% win prob on the game total going over 135.5. chart has stetson scoring 64 DK has line at 59.5. Note as of 2:40 the O/U is 133. similar situation with UTSA. game total on chart is 125.5 with 54.4% for over and utsa scoring 55. DK current line is 123.5 for game and 51.5 for team total. last night chicago st on sheet was 61 book offered at 57.5. they scored 65.
1. win prob% - is this Straight up or with spread?
2. if win prob% is with spread have you noticed / tracked any correlation of this to the blowout spread chance? ie higher win prob% the higher the blowout %? ex southern miss has 54% win prob and 5.8% blowout while abline christ has 51.2% win prob and 6.1% blowout. which stat holds higher value.
something i've started looking at more is team totals specifically games that have larger spread and higher % to the over on game total. ex: stetson is +13.5 with a 55.6% win prob on the game total going over 135.5. chart has stetson scoring 64 DK has line at 59.5. Note as of 2:40 the O/U is 133. similar situation with UTSA. game total on chart is 125.5 with 54.4% for over and utsa scoring 55. DK current line is 123.5 for game and 51.5 for team total. last night chicago st on sheet was 61 book offered at 57.5. they scored 65.
2
Posted on 1/26/23 at 1:59 pm to ks_nola
did you read the guide at the top of each sheet?
Posted on 1/26/23 at 2:05 pm to ks_nola
from the Duck Pond:
Chicago/Calgary total over 6
STL/ARI total under 6.5
+256
They are very high on this
UCLA/Drexel/Lipscomb ML +351
Purdue ML
Fullerton +3
Southern Miss -6.5
+298
James Madison -12.5 and over 152 +265
Elon +10 and under 139 +281
Sam Houston -6.5 and over 137 +264
Abilene Christian +2.5 and over 139 +264
Central Arkansas +2.5 and under 159 +272
I like betting the larger spreads with the over/under as well. If a team is going to cover 10 points, they probably are going to score a good bit and get the over.
If an underdog is going to cover +10, they'll probably need to make it a sloppy game and have the under happen. Usually. so the way i see it they kind of go hand in hand.
CP3 over 9.5 assists
Zach Lavine over 30.5 PA
+262
I'm not a big bettor, but i'm up $700 since i started playing in September. I rarely ever place a single bet, almost always parlays. put $5 on everything but $10 on the hockey bet, so $50 in total bets for this afternoon.
$5/$10 bets are enough to make me have an interest in games i don't normally give a shite about and makes the evenings more fun. Now if i could just get my wife to give me a celebratory blowjob after a good night, that would just be the bees knees.
the Calling Our Shot ladder climb guy had a SGP of
RJ 15+ points
Tatum 20+ points
Randle 20+ points
Tatum 2+ assists
Brown 2+ assists
+104 on Fanduel
I've noticed these bets have been better odds on Fanduel than DK. I don't look at the others as Ceasers and MGM are crap, and i don't feel like having a bunch of different places to make bets so sorry BetRivers and Barstool.
Chicago/Calgary total over 6
STL/ARI total under 6.5
+256
They are very high on this
UCLA/Drexel/Lipscomb ML +351
Purdue ML
Fullerton +3
Southern Miss -6.5
+298
James Madison -12.5 and over 152 +265
Elon +10 and under 139 +281
Sam Houston -6.5 and over 137 +264
Abilene Christian +2.5 and over 139 +264
Central Arkansas +2.5 and under 159 +272
I like betting the larger spreads with the over/under as well. If a team is going to cover 10 points, they probably are going to score a good bit and get the over.
If an underdog is going to cover +10, they'll probably need to make it a sloppy game and have the under happen. Usually. so the way i see it they kind of go hand in hand.
CP3 over 9.5 assists
Zach Lavine over 30.5 PA
+262
I'm not a big bettor, but i'm up $700 since i started playing in September. I rarely ever place a single bet, almost always parlays. put $5 on everything but $10 on the hockey bet, so $50 in total bets for this afternoon.
$5/$10 bets are enough to make me have an interest in games i don't normally give a shite about and makes the evenings more fun. Now if i could just get my wife to give me a celebratory blowjob after a good night, that would just be the bees knees.
the Calling Our Shot ladder climb guy had a SGP of
RJ 15+ points
Tatum 20+ points
Randle 20+ points
Tatum 2+ assists
Brown 2+ assists
+104 on Fanduel
I've noticed these bets have been better odds on Fanduel than DK. I don't look at the others as Ceasers and MGM are crap, and i don't feel like having a bunch of different places to make bets so sorry BetRivers and Barstool.
This post was edited on 1/26/23 at 2:13 pm
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News