re: Diving Deeper on Origin Materials?

I believe that they had consultants put together their financial projections from the original SPAC deck and they articulated (at the time back in early '21) that those projections were supposed to be fairly conservative. Since then, the potential for income streams from carbon black and FDCA has grown quite a bit, and those were not included in the projections. I'm hoping those will offset any underestimation of costs that could be in their projections. NexantECA did a viability report and generally signed off on the tech and assumptions but thought that costs could be slightly higher than ORGN assumed.

Given the binary nature of this tech working or not, I think assuming the tech works that dual train facilities will be the model for O3 and beyond (maybe even O2), and there should be considerable cost savings there as well compared to single train facilities.

I have a detailed DCF of Origin that I've made and I think in today's dollars that ~$17/share (or $58 by 2030) is fair value if they use single train facilities and ~$27/share (or $120 by 2030) is fair value if dual train. These assumptions also include earnout shares that would vest at various price targets, annual company LTIP/board member share grants, 20% cost of capital, 3% terminal growth, no cost share/tax incentives, and no licensing deals.

If they are as close on their projected economics as they were on the O1 finish date, then this should be a home run. They claimed to be cost competitive at $30 oil, if it ends up being $40-50 I think that's more than OK and they'll still be in a spot to provide a carbon negative green discount which will be unheard of in these markets and could generate demand for dozens of these plants.

What are some of your other speculative plays besides Origin?