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re: Brian Kelly and "analytics" on going for 2

Posted on 11/30/22 at 2:10 pm to
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
28752 posts
Posted on 11/30/22 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

I dont think it really backfires because people understand if you're given 1 play to beat or lose to bama from the 3 yard line you just take it and roll the dice.


Absolutely

Be it in regulation or overtime, one play from the two yard line to win the game without your opponent ever getting to possess the ball again is about as optimal a scenario as you can ask for. The moment LSU scored vs. FSU I thought they should have gone for two. Same thing in the game vs. Alabama. Why give your opponent the ball back and force YOURSELF to run more plays starting from the 25 when you can run one play from the 2? That will ALWAYS be my personal opinion barring something extraordinary like your QB or primary player being hurt on the play before the xtra point/2 point conversion and being unavailable for the 2 point play.


quote:

In the situation of being down 13 vs. 14 vs. 15, you almost always take the guaranteed be down 14. Yes, sure, chances are if you go for 2 twice you'll get it once, but there's also a whole lot of scenarios where you go for 2 twice and dont get it either time, and we were 1 2 point play away from that being a reality that game, and then at that point you GUARANTEE you lose because you'd be down 9 instead of 7 by taking the 2 XP late in the 4th.

I understand the analytics behind it, but int that situation it doesnt seem like a good idea in the 4th quarter because there's so much room for failure and forcing yourself out the game even if you do make a great comeback.


Agreed. Going for 2 there doesn't end the game (potentially in your favor) like going for 2 in OT. If you convert you are still down 13 and have to get two TDs. Sure, the reward if you convert is that on the last TD you need the xtra point wins you the game. But if you fail, you are now having to chase that point to even have a chance to tie the game.

If that two points is the difference between being down 8 vs 9. Absolutely. Same for being down 10 v 11, or 3 vs 4. But it is not really that big of a advantage to be down 13 instead of 14
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