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Message
re: Is October when the bottom falls out of the market?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:16 am to BarleyPop
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:16 am to BarleyPop
Well…I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it is currently at .6, hasn’t been at .3 in over a year and hasn’t been consistently under .4 in over a year and a half. Riding a fine line if you think we are looking at that dramatic of a fall.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 4:32 pm to Bard
even more so lately when the goal has been "forward guided" as the hiking round ends when they get the Fed Funds Rate to at least a "real rate" of return
So if we believe in their resolve (my bet #1 or #2 from my post) --- that would mean they have to get the Fed Funds Rate to somewhere at least 400-450 basis points or so right?
With CORE PCE (their favorite measure) likely to be running about that (with base effects / last year's raised inflation) started to help the YOY statistics it seems they will hike again 75 points as they promised. We have definitely reached "peak inflation" for now because of the YOY run up. Demand falling off a cliff already all over the place.
only way I see any policy change at all is that something REALLY significant breaks in the US economy (UK pension fund style) OR a dramatic .. and I mean dramatic ... deterioration in the labor market by then. Today's JOLTS report shows how this data lags ... so they may keep going and THEN have the room to cut later when SHTF
So if we believe in their resolve (my bet #1 or #2 from my post) --- that would mean they have to get the Fed Funds Rate to somewhere at least 400-450 basis points or so right?
With CORE PCE (their favorite measure) likely to be running about that (with base effects / last year's raised inflation) started to help the YOY statistics it seems they will hike again 75 points as they promised. We have definitely reached "peak inflation" for now because of the YOY run up. Demand falling off a cliff already all over the place.
only way I see any policy change at all is that something REALLY significant breaks in the US economy (UK pension fund style) OR a dramatic .. and I mean dramatic ... deterioration in the labor market by then. Today's JOLTS report shows how this data lags ... so they may keep going and THEN have the room to cut later when SHTF
Posted on 10/4/22 at 7:39 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
if you’re gunna downvote tell me why you think I’m wrong you pussies
There’s a ton of people that do mental gymnastics when people are bearish as if we don’t have panic in credit markets like every two years
There’s always a narrative for the bulls to cling to. The reality is the only thing that matters is flows and they can and will reverse at some point.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 8:15 pm to wutangfinancial
Agree with that
I guess I just find it boring to fly by on a DISCUSSION board and downvote a post with a take on markets/macro/whatever and not even offer your rebuttal
Boooooring!
I guess I just find it boring to fly by on a DISCUSSION board and downvote a post with a take on markets/macro/whatever and not even offer your rebuttal
Boooooring!
Posted on 10/5/22 at 12:37 am to Thundercles
Our suppliers have just announced a record 14% increase on raw materials for 11/1. This is the 4th increase this year and 5 points higher than the last increase. It's not even close to being over.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:07 am to Thundercles
Today is the first major blow I expected
Posted on 10/13/22 at 9:43 am to BarleyPop
quote:
If we get .3 (probably even .4) or less and no nukes, the Dow will be up 1000s of points from its current position.
MoM Core was up .3 and just before the announcement Dow futures were up 200, at open it was down 514, as of this writing it's still down a bit over 200 points. That's a net swing of just over 400 points in the exact opposite direction you predicted. Normally I wouldn't worry about someone's wrong prediction here, but there was this...
quote:
I'm torn between being polite vs being direct. If this were a face to face conversation I would smile and nod and let you say your opinions and then change the subject to something you knew more about or something I knew less about.
Apparently, you know less about this than you think.
Pro tip: People who have a solid grasp don't need to be condescending pricks to others who aren't already being pricks to them. Responding to a polite, respectful difference of view with this sort of douchebaggery pretty much guarantees you are going to be wrong. The inference is that you really don't understand what the frick you're doing and are hoping you can just bullshite your way through it with bluster.
With that said, perhaps you should focus more on forums which you seem to know more about. The OT is always looking for more baws.
And now for why you were wrong and why I (and others) knew it.
Core CPI was created because food and fuel can have more volatile prices than the rest so they can often imbalance CPI with large, quick changes which don't last long enough to ripple out to the rest of the economy. This is the root of the problem you don’t seem to comprehend: Core CPI is fairly worthless in our current environment, which is why your stance was so hilariously wrong. It’s worthless because the ongoing cumulative impact of such long-sustained, large increases in food and fuel are the primary drivers (thus can be considered leading indicators) of current CPI. This will continue as long as their increases are so disproportionally large. Core removes food and energy (which includes fuel) from CPI, so trying to view the current economy without those is suggestive of ignorance. In essence, it seems you were trying to use a tool without seeming to understand how, why or when it should be used.
Look back on Core vs CPI over the last dozen years or so, what we see is Core usually being lower than overall CPI. From May 2021 – May 2022 Core outpaced overall CPI. Why did that happen? Because of COVID-caused supply chain issues while still having surpluses of food and energy (mainly oil/gasoline). As those surpluses disappeared, we saw Core and overall CPI mirror one another, then Core fell once again as food and fuel prices began sharp, fast increases and have continued to stay high (oil/gas fell for a bit, but that was due to draining the SPR, now that it's about to stop and OPEC+ has decided to cut oil production we see oil/gasoline going back up). Going that high, that quickly and for that long impacts everything. The price of gasoline/diesel touches every product or service in the economy from multiple vectors, which is why their sustained high prices are now the primary drivers of CPI (you can see this by modifying the chart I linked above to show only Core vs all Energy categories and then doing the same vs all Food categories, they all far outpace Core and have for a good while).
On the market side, it seems that traders have been trying to wishcast the Fed into pivoting or pausing all year and all year the Fed has stuck to their stated plans. This is why the market has been taking a massive shite after rate hike announcements (aside from August, but only because economic news came out in time to move the expectation from .5 back to .75 about a week before the meeting); they haven’t been pricing in the Fed sticking to their guns, they’ve been pricing in their faux reality of pause/pivot or even just a lower-than-expected increase. MoM overall CPI being up .4% was above what the market was expecting, thus why we aren't seeing the Dow being up "1000s" now, nor will it be for the rest of the year. There is no good economic news on the horizon so there's not going to be any good market activity other than occasional bounces. The market will continue to trend downward for the rest of the year and a large part of that will be due to the very factors Core CPI excludes.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:43 am to Bard
quote:Dow is now up over 600 pts...don't shoot the messenger.
That's a net swing of just over 400 points in the exact opposite direction you predicted.
No one knows what the hell is going on.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:45 am to Niner
quote:
Dow is now up over 600 pts...don't shoot the messenger.
No one knows what the hell is going on.
Karma waited until I had posted. She's such a bitch.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:46 am to Bard
quote:
That's a net swing of just over 400 points in the exact opposite direction you predicted.
Since this post the DJIA is up 900 points in 1 hour. Of course it could drop again for the rest of the day but no need to take a victory lap in the 1st hour of trading, lol.
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:46 am to Niner
quote:
No one knows what the hell is going on.
If you're watching every single 5 minute candle intraday you probably don't
Posted on 10/13/22 at 10:56 am to wutangfinancial
quote:I watch it because it interests me and keeping an eye on the markets is part of my job. If a client calls and asks me why the market is up over 1.5% just hours after the inflation announcement and I said, "is it up?"...how do you think that would come across?
If you're watching every single 5 minute candle intraday you probably don't
The difference is a 5-minute window intraday doesn't make a lick of difference in how I decide to invest over the next 5/10/30 years.
Maybe stop making assumptions about folks you know nothing about. (If you've read even a couple of my posts on this board you would have known a 5-minute candle intraday makes no difference to me...)
Posted on 10/13/22 at 12:49 pm to Niner
Which assumption was that again?
Depends on how sophisticated the client is. If you told me on the phone ""the market" is down 1.5% because XZY" with absolute certainty there would be a redemption within 30 seconds of hanging up.
quote:
If a client calls and asks me why the market is up over 1.5% just hours after the inflation announcement and I said, "is it up?"...how do you think that would come across?
Depends on how sophisticated the client is. If you told me on the phone ""the market" is down 1.5% because XZY" with absolute certainty there would be a redemption within 30 seconds of hanging up.
This post was edited on 10/13/22 at 12:57 pm
Posted on 10/13/22 at 2:16 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:That because I pay attention to what the DJIA does intraday I don't know what the hell is going on.
Which assumption was that again?
quote:Can you point me to where I said I would tell the client why the market was up 1.5%? I said I need to know what is happening if my clients ask - especially something as obvious as an inflation report and subsequent market movement. I *gasp* agree with you. If someone says they know exactly why the market is going one way or the other with absolute certainty, run the other direction.
If you told me on the phone ""the market" is down 1.5% because XZY" with absolute certainty there would be a redemption within 30 seconds of hanging up.
Posted on 10/14/22 at 2:37 am to Bard
quote:
Message
Is October when the bottom falls out of the market? by Bard
quote:
If we get .3 (probably even .4) or less and no nukes, the Dow will be up 1000s of points from its current position.
MoM Core was up .3 and just before the announcement Dow futures were up 200, at open it was down 514, as of this writing it's still down a bit over 200 points. That's a net swing of just over 400 points in the exact opposite direction you predicted. Normally I wouldn't worry about someone's wrong prediction here, but there was this...
quote:
I'm torn between being polite vs being direct. If this were a face to face conversation I would smile and nod and let you say your opinions and then change the subject to something you knew more about or something I knew less about.
Apparently, you know less about this than you think.
Pro tip: People who have a solid grasp don't need to be condescending pricks to others who aren't already being pricks to them. Responding to a polite, respectful difference of view with this sort of douchebaggery pretty much guarantees you are going to be wrong. The inference is that you really don't understand what the frick you're doing and are hoping you can just bullshite your way through it with bluster.
With that said, perhaps you should focus more on forums which you seem to know more about. The OT is always looking for more baws.
And now for why you were wrong and why I (and others) knew it.
Core CPI was created because food and fuel can have more volatile prices than the rest so they can often imbalance CPI with large, quick changes which don't last long enough to ripple out to the rest of the economy. This is the root of the problem you don’t seem to comprehend: Core CPI is fairly worthless in our current environment, which is why your stance was so hilariously wrong. It’s worthless because the ongoing cumulative impact of such long-sustained, large increases in food and fuel are the primary drivers (thus can be considered leading indicators) of current CPI. This will continue as long as their increases are so disproportionally large. Core removes food and energy (which includes fuel) from CPI, so trying to view the current economy without those is suggestive of ignorance. In essence, it seems you were trying to use a tool without seeming to understand how, why or when it should be used.
Look back on Core vs CPI over the last dozen years or so, what we see is Core usually being lower than overall CPI. From May 2021 – May 2022 Core outpaced overall CPI. Why did that happen? Because of COVID-caused supply chain issues while still having surpluses of food and energy (mainly oil/gasoline). As those surpluses disappeared, we saw Core and overall CPI mirror one another, then Core fell once again as food and fuel prices began sharp, fast increases and have continued to stay high (oil/gas fell for a bit, but that was due to draining the SPR, now that it's about to stop and OPEC+ has decided to cut oil production we see oil/gasoline going back up). Going that high, that quickly and for that long impacts everything. The price of gasoline/diesel touches every product or service in the economy from multiple vectors, which is why their sustained high prices are now the primary drivers of CPI (you can see this by modifying the chart I linked above to show only Core vs all Energy categories and then doing the same vs all Food categories, they all far outpace Core and have for a good while).
On the market side, it seems that traders have been trying to wishcast the Fed into pivoting or pausing all year and all year the Fed has stuck to their stated plans. This is why the market has been taking a massive shite after rate hike announcements (aside from August, but only because economic news came out in time to move the expectation from .5 back to .75 about a week before the meeting); they haven’t been pricing in the Fed sticking to their guns, they’ve been pricing in their faux reality of pause/pivot or even just a lower-than-expected increase. MoM overall CPI being up .4% was above what the market was expecting, thus why we aren't seeing the Dow being up "1000s" now, nor will it be for the rest of the year. There is no good economic news on the horizon so there's not going to be any good market activity other than occasional bounces. The market will continue to trend downward for the rest of the year and a large part of that will be due to the very factors Core CPI excludes.
Not sure I've ever TL;DR a longer self-own in my entire life.
Posted on 10/14/22 at 1:33 pm to Gideon Swashbuckler
quote:
Not sure I've ever TL;DR a longer self-own in my entire life.
It sure looks like that, doesn't it?
Posted on 10/14/22 at 6:59 pm to Bard
quote:
If we get .3 (probably even .4) or less and no nukes, the Dow will be up 1000s of points from its current position.
MoM Core was up .3 and just before the announcement Dow futures were up 200, at open it was down 514, as of this writing it's still down a bit over 200 points. That's a net swing of just over 400 points in the exact opposite direction you predicted. Normally I wouldn't worry about someone's wrong prediction here, but there was this...
quote:
I'm torn between being polite vs being direct. If this were a face to face conversation I would smile and nod and let you say your opinions and then change the subject to something you knew more about or something I knew less about.
Apparently, you know less about this than you think.
?
Pro tip: People who have a solid grasp don't need to be condescending pricks to others who aren't already being pricks to them. Responding to a polite, respectful difference of view with this sort of douchebaggery pretty much guarantees you are going to be wrong. The inference is that you really don't understand what the frick you're doing and are hoping you can just bull shite your way through it with bluster.
With that said, perhaps you should focus more on forums which you seem to know more about. The OT is always looking for more baws.
And now for why you were wrong and why I (and others) knew it.
Core CPI was created because food and fuel can have more volatile prices than the rest so they can often imbalance CPI with large, quick changes which don't last long enough to ripple out to the rest of the economy. This is the root of the problem you don’t seem to comprehend: Core CPI is fairly worthless in our current environment, which is why your stance was so hilariously wrong. It’s worthless because the ongoing cumulative impact of such long-sustained, large increases in food and fuel are the primary drivers (thus can be considered leading indicators) of current CPI. This will continue as long as their increases are so disproportionally large. Core removes food and energy (which includes fuel) from CPI, so trying to view the current economy without those is suggestive of ignorance. In essence, it seems you were trying to use a tool without seeming to understand how, why or when it should be used.
?
Look back on Core vs CPI over the last dozen years or so, what we see is Core usually being lower than overall CPI. From May 2021 – May 2022 Core outpaced overall CPI. Why did that happen? Because of COVID-caused supply chain issues while still having surpluses of food and energy (mainly oil/gasoline). As those surpluses disappeared, we saw Core and overall CPI mirror one another, then Core fell once again as food and fuel prices began sharp, fast increases and have continued to stay high (oil/gas fell for a bit, but that was due to draining the SPR, now that it's about to stop and OPEC+ has decided to cut oil production we see oil/gasoline going back up). Going that high, that quickly and for that long impacts everything. The price of gasoline/diesel touches every product or service in the economy from multiple vectors, which is why their sustained high prices are now the primary drivers of CPI (you can see this by modifying the chart I linked above to show only Core vs all Energy categories and then doing the same vs all Food categories, they all far outpace Core and have for a good while).
On the market side, it seems that traders have been trying to wishcast the Fed into pivoting or pausing all year and all year the Fed has stuck to their stated plans. This is why the market has been taking a massive shite after rate hike announcements (aside from August, but only because economic news came out in time to move the expectation from .5 back to .75 about a week before the meeting); they haven’t been pricing in the Fed sticking to their guns, they’ve been pricing in their faux reality of pause/pivot or even just a lower-than-expected increase. MoM overall CPI being up .4% was above what the market was expecting, thus why we aren't seeing the Dow being up "1000s" now, nor will it be for the rest of the year. There is no good economic news on the horizon so there's not going to be any good market activity other than occasional bounces. The market will continue to trend downward for the rest of the year and a large part of that will be due to the very factors Core CPI excludes.
Mother of God. Who upvoted this garbage and why?
My ****STATEMENT****:
quote:
IF Core CPI m/m comes in weak enough to allow .5 from the Fed Nov. 2nd, then risk-on will explode (markets way up/dollar way down). If Core CPI m/m is high enough to force a .75 from the fed, things could get extremely bad.
Every financial thing on earth comes down to 2 things this month which will decide heaven or hell:
1. Core CPI m/m due out middle of the month
2. Nuclear war
What happened:
.6 core! .75 hike assured. Dollar ended the week at its highs and markets at their lows.
Conclusion:
You took my hypothetical best case scenario of "WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF" and ran with it as a prediction. Then proceeded to post an entire wall of nothing about something you made up in your own head.
Where did the 6 upvotes come from???!!! A total of 6 people didn't read that much less upvote it.
Posted on 10/14/22 at 7:25 pm to Bard
quote:
Bard
quote:
Number of Posts:45541
quote:
Pro Tip
How do you find all the time to post while working those high dollar daytrades?
You've posted 45000 times. You're addicted to your own opinion on an anonymous message board. Not a pro anything.
Posted on 10/14/22 at 8:04 pm to BarleyPop
That’s what happens when we click mouses for an economy. Be careful you never know who you’re talking to. There are some sharps on the TD.
Posted on 10/16/22 at 11:26 am to Thundercles
As long as the Fed is raising rates, the stock market won’t rise. They are tightening, ie, taking money out of the market. Once the Fed signals rates are set to drop, that will be the time to pour money in.
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