re: Would we be in a recession under a Trump second term?

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How did stopping construction of a pipeline that had barely even started getting built have a negative impact on the industry? The US is currently producing over 12 MM barrels of oil per day, which matches our all time high of 2019. Domestic oil production is not the problem here.

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True on your two statements.

However, as for your question, I think it brought into doubt stability in what would be the path of the Biden Administration as far as a domestic energy policy is concerns (those idiots still don't have one). I believe that has contributed SOME to the high price per barrel of oil, along with production trying to catch up to the unexpected escalation of demand coming out of COVID shutdowns, lack of ability to ramp up more due to supply chain issues and lack of investment in takeaway infrastructure once demand crashed, and the war in Ukraine.

The Obama Administration wasn't necessarily friendly to oil & gas, but at some point early in his tenure, industry understood what the policies and rules would be going forward and adapted, and ran smoothly.

No one knows what the rules under the Biden Administration are going to be yet. Hell, the Administration themselves can't figure out the rules, because they've got ZERO people in real leadership of the Department of Energy and Department of Interior who understand anything related to energy production.