re: NCAA Regional Host Candidate Comparison

Florida added to the mix. I think that makes 20 contenders for 16 host spots. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee handles USM getting bounced from the CUSA tournament. ULL beating Ga Southern tomorrow would help. Texas beating Oklahoma to drop them below LSU in RPI would also help. Florida probably can’t win the SECT either.

LSU is currently #26 in the RPI. It’s unlikely anyone behind them gets a host spot, unless it’s Arkansas. Arkansas actually has a better record vs the SEC and a better overall season (including the sweep of LSU), but they aren’t playing well of late and the committee probably won’t move past their RPI.

Of the teams ahead of them, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Georgia, Georgia Tech, DBU, Texas St and Virginia are definitely not hosting. That leaves 19. Tennessee, Oregon St, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, A&M, Texas, Oklahoma St. and Notre Dame are definitely in ahead of LSU. That leaves 9 teams for the last 6 spots.

UNC- They are currently #4 in the RPI. The only thing that might keep them out was their 15-15 regular season conference mark. Series wins over E Carolina and Coastal Carolina along with their run to the ACC title game make them almost certain to host.

East Carolina- They are currently #15 in the RPI. If they win tomorrow, they are likely to host. Even with a loss they probably host ahead of LSU.

Oklahoma- Currently right ahead of LSU in RPI. If they win the Big 12 tournament, they will host. If they lose, they are out.

Georgia Southern- They are #7 in the RPI, but the committee must know that’s hollow. They didn’t even win the Sun Belt. If ULL beats them tomorrow denying them the tournament title too, I don’t think they host. If they win, then I just don’t know what the committee will do.

USM- They are out of the CUSA tournament and outside the Top 16 in RPI. That may be enough to keep them for hosting, but I don’t know if the committee will still go with their better RPI.

That leaves 4 teams for anywhere from 1-4 spots: LSU, Auburn, Florida and Louisville. If Florida loses tomorrow I can’t see them getting a spot. If they win, I think they host. LSU deserves a spot ahead of Auburn based on better SEC record and better play down the stretch, but I don’t know if the committee will look past the RPI difference. Louisville would be a 5th host spot for the ACC. I think the SEC gets 4 spots before Louisville gets one. The question comes back to where the committee puts LSU relative to Auburn and Florida if they would be the odd man out.

As it sits right now, my guess is that LSU is #19. A Florida loss probably moves them ahead of both Florida and Louisville (to give the SEC 4 spots). Then they would need either an Oklahoma loss or a Ga Southern loss to get one of the last two host spots.