quote:
think most realists can see that this hasn't gone well for Russia. I think most realists can also see that Russia would have steamrolled them by now without foreign aid.

Don't forget that Russia's vaulted 1st Guard got annihilated outside of Kyiv.

Also worth noting: Russia didn't exactly light the world on fire from 2014 - 2022, prior to their full-scale invasion.

Ultimately, this is a wasted argument, though: Ukraine did receive outside assistance, and thus Russia was stymied.

quote:
I would like to see an argument that things are going well for Ukraine though. You know, two things can be true: Ukraine is starting to show cracks, and Russia has shown to be inept in conflicts where they don't have an overwhelming advantage.

Thoughtful and nuanced responses? In this thread?

It's a full-blown war, nobody will "do well" with it. It's clear the counter-offensive was a mistake, and Ukraine would have been best suited to stay on defense and maintain a huge K:D ratio in defensive actions.

IMO, Ukraine "wins" by surviving and joining the EU. They're still on pace for both, so I'd say they're headed in the right direction.

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Posted by cypher

Member since Sep 2014

2693 posts

Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:56 am to RuLSU

Institute for the Study of War
@TheStudyofWar
3/ Russian forces are reaping the benefits of the West's long-term restriction on Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory — territory that Russian forces now depend on to sustain their offensive ops in northern Kharkiv.

4/ Kremlin information operations encouraging Western self-deterrence likely aimed to allow Russian forces to build up and launch offensive operations without the threat of Ukrainian strikes against military and logistics assets.